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Northwest Biotherapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • greatdayisback2013 greatdayisback2013 Mar 28, 2014 12:56 PM Flag

    Linda Powers, CEO of Northwest Biotherapeutics, Attacks and Debunks the Weak Bear Case in a Presentation on March 27

    Linda Powers, CEO of Northwest Biotherapeutics, Attacks and Debunks the Weak Bear Case in a Presentation on March 27

    Posted by Larry Smith on Mar 28, 2014


    Northwest Biotherapeutics CEO Linda Powers made a presentation yesterday in which she addressed the bear case that has resulted in significant pressure on the stock in the last two weeks in particular and for the last two years in general. In my opinion, she effectively debunked a weak bear argument, but you be the judge. This note is based on copious notes taken from her presentation.

    The Bear Case Examined and Debunked

    The core of the bear case is based on several arguments. The first is that dendritic cell cancer vaccines are “weak” and can’t work. This argument probably stems from the long line of failed phase 3 trials in cancer vaccines, the most recent being the failure of Glaxo’s (GSK) MAGE-A3 cancer vaccine in non-small cell lung cancer. However, there has only been one phase 3 trial for a dendritic cell cancer vaccine like DCVax-L and that was for Dendreon’s (DNDN) Provenge. That trial was successful and led to approval.

    There have been no other phase 3 trials completed with dendritic cell cancer vaccines and hence no failures. ImmunoCellular’s (IMUC) ICT-107 recently reported results from a small and underpowered, exploratory phase 2 trial which involved 124 patients. In that trial, ICT-107 did not achieve statistical significance in overall survival. However, the trial did achieve statistical significance for progression free survival of 2.0 months on an intent to treat basis. For patients who received at least four injections of ICT-107, progression free survival was 3.0 months. ICT-107 and DCVax-L are different (probably quite different) products but this seems encouraging. Bear in mind that the end point of the phase 3 trial of DCVax-L which is three times larger than the ICT-107 trial and much more strongly powered, is progression free survival of 6.0 months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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