As of now HOKU
1) Has about $35 million market cap
2) needs $106 million to finish the plant
3) A potential takeover pays (for arguments sake), $3 more than the current share price, so thats $60 million
Add the $35 + $106 + $60 = $200 million
Since the company will average $200 million in the first year, doesn't the company who takes them over re-coup in just 1 year (average), and have 9 more years each to add $200 additional million.
What am I missing here?
Another theory. The big bang in solar. All the pieces are circling the sun. Coalaescing. The bigger attract the smaller particles. Whatever doesn't attach itself to bigger bodies will be space dust.
AMAT spent over a billion dollars acquiring smaller businesses so it can turn robotic module prowess from chips to solar modules. Went from $0 to $160-M in 2007, to $700-M in 2008 selling sun-fab factories. List goes on with chinese companies acquiring european companies.
China power company just spent $3 billion to buy poly/wafer producer.
2nd annual intersolar conference in S.F.Ca, started yesterday. USA utilities have 900 MW worth of projects. Because they don't want to be the buyers of electrons, they want to own it. and until money loosens up, are the only ones who can afford to do these mega projects.
Seems like consolidation is the order of the day for the next few years. We'll either be part of a planet, a moon, or space dust.
Hu ! Gained all kinds of credibility with me. And I don't think he emphasized enough, HOKU's non-experience with anything of this size, complexity and process safety regulations. They have no leverage whatsoever. BUT, as I said before, I believe that an entity like Bechtel or Fluor could parachute in, complete this project and turn a several hundred million investment into $ 1.5bb, easily
The over capacity. I think they started out to build a 2,500 ton plant but got oversuscribed. Then switched to 3,000 ton plant. Then decided to switch to 4,000 tons. Then Sanyo dropped out. then the revisions. So they have capacity to bring in new customers or sell on spot market.
weekly spot market prices come out tomorrow. Last week was average of $54.50. Week before that was $55.00. New plants (4) scheduled for poly production start coming out in 2nd half of 2009 to end of 2010. Timing is everything.
I doubt anyone is trying to sell at $55. This market is completely cornered by just a few very well established companies and they will just cut down on production rather than drive the price into the ground. At least in the short term. Let's see what happens, HOKU clearly cannot sell any more poly until it resolves its financing situation.