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EVERGREEN SOLAR INC Message Board

  • billlewisiv billlewisiv Nov 17, 2010 9:59 AM Flag

    Had enough, newbies?

    It all looked so glorious just one month ago, didn't it?

    Now you're down 10-15, maybe 20% in just a few weeks.

    You ain't seen nothin' yet.

    FSLR, TSL, JASO, STP...all getting killed. Nice job, Credit Suisse.

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    • I'm curious, boninvester . . .

      where can I find the info you posted?

    • billlewisiv, who are you asking exactly?

    • Eslr has cash $93 mil for next 18 to 24 months. Their production costs for this quarter are $1.50 at Jaiwei.
      They should have a good 4th quarter, they already have 3.4MW in warehouse and will produce 8 to 10 more this quarter.
      They are doing what they say they will do. Growing with demand and not overproducing. Introduced a new product a few days ago. Will be introducing 10 pilot furnaces for the new 156x156 wafer in a few weeks.
      That, is at the Chinese Governments' urging.
      Margins will be breakeven this quarter, due to aluminum issue but will be back to 7% in Q1 and average 10% to 11% for the year. By year end 2011 margins will be 13% to 16%.
      The exterior factors institutional ownership and govt leadership issues aren't where they should be. Eslr is on the US govt case with their repesentatives and policy makers in washington. Unfortunately, they found a better partner in the Chinese govt.

    • Billie,

      I have told the Princess to settle down and learn to trade.

      You are correct that it is probably best not to sell, but what about working it over and lowering your average. Do you think this is all about the stock value of ESLR?

      The price has been driven and is still being driven underground. I read a bit of positive news that no one is chattering about concerning ESLR.

      STP is under a little pressure due to higher Si pricing. Evergreen is subjected to this too, but it won't destroy Evergreen.

      Raw material costs is one reason to own ESLR. I'm not knocking First Solar's Panels, but can First Solar capitalize on the Solar market long term? They are raw material bound and can only make a few GW a year. With Si we can always make more and getting more Tellurium is a huge problem. I think First Solar (CdTe) is going to drop off a cliff if the raw material manipulators can do their thing.

      So they take up Tellurium prices and short the stock. I not a big fan of shorting, but it will happen even though they have a good product.

      Concerning ESLR and whether to sell at this point you have to decide whether ESLR is going to go bankrupt? I think with China running the show my bet is no.

      I can tell you that the USA general population is clueless on our Energy Future. Brazil is claiming they are going to be exporting 800,000 bbl a day in 2020. Maybe? The problem is that our oil field depletion rate is far higher.

      I'm hoping the general population wakes up and the EV's catch on ASAP and get our energy mix less dependent on foreign supplies.

      I can tell you that the three Evergreen Systems I'm been watching have made $7000 of energy in the past two years.

      So what's your point about newbies? You are in a world of hurt in my eyes.

    • Sell? Here?

      This market may be crooked, but there's no point in selling here.

    • Billie,

      Now comprehend what you wrote above and sell. Move on to someting else. How about XOM!

      If you own the stock act like it.
      Check out my ZAAP.ob stock.
      China knows what is coming.

      I'm checking out tomorrow and going on vacation.
      Have a great Thanksgiving!

    • I'm in for another 200!

    • Heul doch, Weichei!

    • Looks like a big over-reaction to me. please take your pessimism out of your comments and try to post meaningful information. Downgrades rarely have a lasting effect.

 
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