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EVERGREEN SOLAR INC Message Board

  • goldman321 goldman321 Feb 1, 2011 3:37 PM Flag

    Going back to $3's ranges this week.

    Added more and holding tight.

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    • This company is done and there are serious concerns for BK. You don't close down your "crown jewel" (Devens Plant) unless you are desperate.

      It's pretty obvious that the company is shrinking, not growing, as it's has reduced its production and gone more towards a licensing business in which it licenses it's "string ribbon" technology to other manufacturers. In the short term it's great as you aren't exposed to the production, inventory, and capital risk and manufacturer would make but it means you will never be a true player, and when the "string ribbon" technology becomes obsolete, and it will-just a matter of time, then the licensing business is gone too.

      I hope it hits $4 so I can short this stock.

      The problems with ESLR are very serious:

      -lack of demand for solar products which means no pricing power
      -serious competition

      • 2 Replies to turnandburn13
      • Economics and yes survival is why ESLR will be closing the Devens plant: $1.88/watt to $1.25 in 2011 and $.90 in 2012 (2010 3Q report, P30)

        "Total cost estimated for the initial 100 MW wafer manufacturing facility is expected to be approximately $60 million, the majority of which is for Quad wafer
        furnaces. When this facility reaches approximately 20 MW of capacity per quarter as expected in mid-2011, we expect to initially produce a wafer for
        approximately $0.40 per watt and have a total panel cost of approximately $1.25 per watt. As our performance at Devens has demonstrated, yields through the
        cell and panel fabs using String Ribbon wafers are similar to yields in factories that utilize cast and sawn wafers. Therefore working with Jiawei, we believe
        that we can achieve cell and panel conversion costs that are competitive with industry leading performance and have total panel cost of approximately $0.90
        per watt by the end of 2012, including a wafer cost of approximately $0.25 per watt.
        Our total panel cost at Devens was approximately $1.88 per watt"

      • "You don't close down your "crown jewel" (Devens Plant) unless you are desperate."
        - Simple economics. It cost less to produce a widget in China.

        "It's pretty obvious that the company is shrinking, not growing, as it's has reduced its production and gone more towards a licensing business in which it licenses it's "string ribbon" technology to other manufacturers."

        - This sounds like manufacturing:
        "The parties intend to expand production capacity of their respective manufacturing operations to approximately 500 MW by 2012, the timing and extent of any potential expansion will be determined in 2010."

    • Can't agree more!

      Bottom Up!

 
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