Didn't think it would take a hit this big but I know a number of people who sold to get into Carlyle and their marketed 'discount to BX'. CG didn't gain and I expect to see a shift of funds into BX as investors come onboard for the distressed real estate portfolio (for which BX sold two several hundred million dollar + properties this week). There was also a widely promoted article this week highlighting that analysts really can't predict private equity quarter by quarter which should not be a surprise to anyone because selling portfolio companies is dependent on market conditions. At some point later this year and next year, BX will find buyers for several of its firms and when that happens, it wouldn't surprise me to see that quarter's 'distribution' amount to $1-$2 per share and I anticipate a share price of +/- $18 before year's end. Am sure there are bears on this site who will blast me, but mark this email -- getting in in mid-12s is going to be a very profitable trade.