This thing is going down. Are your not aware of tea party ideology? Tea party is in a suicide mission and WILL make the government default. This stock has the most to lose as there portfolio will get hit the hardest. I never got in at 21 I got in at 24 and doubled down at 25.50 and plan to ride this down into the mid to low teens by August 18th when the federal government has to start defaulting and interest rates go sky high. For now I am just enjoying the beaches of Hawaii.
Didja cover yet? You gotta tell when you cry uncle.
Normally I assume that everyone on yahoo is lying about when they buy and sell, which is why everyone claims to be making money, but the start of your posts here coincide with a day when the stock price was $24, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.
Although your thesis that there will be a default isn't unreasonable, I do see a couple problems with your reasoning.
The first is your statement that BX has the most to lose. If you think about it, there are lots of companies with more to lose, starting with companies having gov't contracts, and those carrying a large portfolio of gov't bonds since they'll have to mark them to market.
The second problem, and this regards the broader market, is that a lot of people are already expecting the worst from this congress/prez, so I'm not sure that it'll be much of a surprise if there is a default. That means it's partly priced into the market. Sure there'll probably be some reaction, but I don't think it'll be as big as you are hoping for.
Maybe I'm the one who'll be surprised. Who knows. I've taken a lot off the table recently, so I'm not betting the farm on no market reaction, and I wouldn't want to bet the farm on a market reaction if I were in your shoes.