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  • carolyn_novice carolyn_novice Nov 28, 2013 8:39 PM Flag

    Accumulation, Distribution, Manipulation BX at 28.43

    Option Expire at close Saturday, December 21, 2013
    SNo--------Highest Open int--------Strike price --------Closing--------Price equivalent
    1……….. 10357 ……….. 26 ……….. 2.59 ……….. 28.59
    2……….. 11120 ……….. 28 ……….. 1.01 ……….. 29.01
    3……….. 4682 ……….. 29 ……….. 0.37 ……….. 29.37
    For December all Call Options with strike price equivalent above 28.50 the
    Total stock volume = 3,741,000
    1. As the stock moves above, $28.50, the writers of the options, must buy back or lose 3, 741, 00 shares of BX…………….accumulation
    2. As stocks moves lower it invites more sellers …..distribution
    3. Stock moves up and down in the range 27.50--28.50……………….Manipulation
    Traders must evaluate the above open interest, and the price of BX.
    In reality, the writes of these options are sophisticated investor and wrote these Call Options to make extra return when BX was trading at a lower price, after making a new high.
    1. BX has made a new high and has topped, I will write these options, and let them have the stock.
    2. BX is moving up very fast and needs a reaction; I can sell the option, and cover it when stock goes down.
    3. BX should close lower and the extra money is mine.
    4. BX write the option, (naked) and if stock moves above, I will buy the stock and deliver
    5. BX option spread, buy the lower and sell the higher. …..Negligible
    After my careful analysis, BX should close above 29.37 before December 21, 2013. It still can go down, 3% to 5% but will bounce back, unless the volume on the downside exceeds daily volume.
    .If you are a trader and have more than a few thousand BX shares.
    1. Sell 50% if the stock makes new high with less 2,500,000 shares volume.
    2. Stock moves in the morning 50 cents with volume about 75,000, sell stock if it is at new high.
    3. Stock moves near the close 50 cents, take no action if the stock is new high.
    4. Stock drops on low volume on Friday, take no action.
    5. Stock remain in a trading range ……..Do what you like.
    Keep an eye on WX, market leader, KKR tells what BX

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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BX
26.59-0.45(-1.66%)May 4 4:01 PMEDT