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Contango Oil & Gas Company Message Board

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  • lexpress56 lexpress56 Sep 11, 2007 2:45 PM Flag

    How did you guys came across MCF?

    Crazystocks wrote to Faloleadr: "Unless you know an insider and get your information ahead of the curve then you are as speculative with your hard earned $$ as a guy betting on Monday Night Football."

    Wow. What school of logic did this come from?

    Certainly, Contango might be considered to have short term high risk from the standpoint that it is not a fully developed business and items like hurricane exposure might delay its tightly focused development efforts in the GOM near term. But it is certainly not speculative like a guy betting on a football game, nor is it speculative like consumer fad stocks like Healeys and Crocs etc because, plain and simple, it is an proven reserve play with the only real variable being "time to market."

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    • OK. I'm qualifying my responses by stating that I am not the worlds foremost expert on equities trading. My opinion is just that - my own perspective/experience, which I have no problem with anyone disagreeing. That said; I was reacting to Faloleader's comment "keep in mind that I'm an "investor" and I typically hold the stock for 3+ years". My feeling is that owning MCF or most single stocks does not really constitute investing(my take on Falo is that he meant to use Investor in a context of a more lofty or long term strategic/intelligent approach to capital growth). Due to the relative risk of most stocks - unless you are privy to what is going on inside the box, you are "speculating" that the stock price will move in your favor over some time period. Take every Monday for the remainder of this NFL season. Bet $100 on each game and also predict the days +/- price movement of MCF for that same day. See my point? We can call ourselves "Investors" of MCF if it makes one feel better about themselves, but really we are just speculators. That was really my point/opinion.

      • 1 Reply to crazystocks222
      • If you're going to quote me then at least quote what I said.
        I "try" to hold a stock three years and not "typically". Typically something chases me out before then and, if it doesn't, I continue to add to my positions along the way.
        My biggest winners have been when I held them for several years and I suppose it could be said I let my long term winners run and sell my losers although it's an over simplification. It happens that way because generally I'll sell my losers to offset capital gains and to raise money for new investments. Generally I end up holding my winners much longer because I do not like to pay taxes!
        Not sure where you come up with the exit plan idea....maybe the Harvard business school teaches such a thing, but I've never heard of it. To me it all depends upon timing, as a leader PK may have some idea for a replacement and undoubtedly he's done estate planning for his ultimate exit, but exiting my (or even PK's) ownership position depends upon the offer being made and how I (or PK) envision the future for MCF.
        Believe me you too can make a ton of money in the stock market without knowing anybody through using common knowledge and investing (or speculating as you choose) over several years.

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