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Brookdale Senior Living Inc. Message Board

  • ricardogarcia00 ricardogarcia00 Aug 23, 2006 12:09 PM Flag

    Impact of Slowdown in Housing and RE

    I was considering buying BKD, but now wondering if the company's earnings will suffer from the bust in the housing and real estate market. i imagine that BKDs success is closely tied to seniors being able to sell thier homes to move to a BKD facility. also, the vale of thier properties will decrease due to real estate decline. also wondering if there is a lot of stock coming out of lock-up from recent IPO that will put downwards pressure on the stock as sellers may outnumber buyers. any thoghts?

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    • I would say your comments are a little too big picture. I like the pharms-guys comments. Housing market has a limited impact on this business. How much can the price of a house go down in BF Wisconsin or some other third tier market. Hey, the monthly fees for these facilities is well over any elderly person's mortgage, etc.

      Look at earnings, leverage, mgmt expertise, same store noi growth, etc. Also, high interest rates can hurt too - increasing the cost of their leasehold interests.

    • Why the queries? The answers are obvious. Negative for BKD and negative for BKD. And why are you even considering a stock with consensus 2007 EPS estimates that are negative (i.e., losses) in today's market whose management has a proven track-record of prior bankruptcies in same industry? In a bull market (rising tide lifts all boats) the brain-dead may not only survive but short-term thrive. IMO that's not today's stock market. Waste of your investment time...

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