it is a FACT that mutual fund redemptions, daytrading "short sales", HEDGE FUND redemtions(particularly the Fortress Group) are negatively impacting the price reduction in BKD. As ALL other Sectors and stocks that make up the Sectors are hit hard across the board, it MUST be understood that there is nothing significant that is "particular" to BKD that is driving price down(fundamentals are the same, but it is noteworthy that the "general" overall condition of economy suppresses any upward price movement for the time being.)At these LOW price levels, share accumulations should have already begun, as the FUTURE of the Baby Boomers will propel BKD to have a lucrative financial future, as the Boomer's retirement Age is now upon us. Long term, BKD share price is like being a youngster in a candy store filled with PENNY CANDY!! (Just remember after buying and eating the candy to brush your teeth right afterward...lol).JMHO Shybasset
My profession is in the development and operations of seniors housing communities nationwide, which spans over two decades. What investors and analysts don't inherently understand about consumer trends in the industry is a lot. Anyone who is "banking" on the Baby Boomers to fill be the next generation who populates existing retirement communities are way off. The average age of residents in most ANY type of seniors housing is well over 80 yrs; more like average of 85 and over. Boomers are not the next feeder generation; rather, it is the 75+ ("Silent Generation"). Boomers are easily greater than 15+ years from being the target market. So, while American's are aging, investors needs to back off the focus on a tidal wave a baby boomers making them rich on this type of investment. Besides, by the time Boomers are age-appropriate, the existing retirement community "models" will be substantially outdated. The Boomers will most likely reinvent the concept of retirement housing, as they have done historically done for decades. Retirement housing is not stagnant, nor are the next generations to invest their assets and lifestyles. Message here is to see this as a very long-term investment rather than a short one.
There is a significant part of BKD's business that is dependent on individuals selling their homes and using their equity to purchase / participate in BKD accommocations. That part of the business is and will be adversely impacted until home sales (other than foreclosures) re-emerge. That process may take an additional 18-24 months.
I told people years ago, but very few know the truth. Bankruptcy has been a part of this companys history many times over. The next one will not be any diff, they will restructure, go public in a few years and then short it after a small run up for a nice profit.
The baby boomers lost over 40% of their 401k plans since Jan.08, they're under-water in the housing market, they're the first to be laid off and are the highest goup of unemployed workers currently, and are moving back home with their elderly parents who some may still be alive, and are over-all broke after sending their kids off to college, and have been taxed to death. They can't afford health cares sky rocketing costs, must less plan to move to any retirement community, but will all be living with their educated kids for support after their parents are dead. Different world today, and considered lucky to be eating regularily. Most of their jobs were out-sourced to India or China for cheaper wages. While they watch their parents wealth decline in this failing economy! No luxurios living for baby boomers bleak future!