I was just kidding. You understand, of course you
do. My apologies, AMAT is down 2 1/8 now, wait for
Gordon, appreciate your correction and intelligent (Woos,
learn from Gordon and I) comments. I do expect AMAT to
correct for a while and thats why I bought Aug. 75 puts.
I paid $7, hope to sell today at least for
I apologize for implying that you said AMAT was
overvalued - that comment was actually directed at the
poster you were respoding to in your earlier post. As
for Yahoo's effect on AMAT - I actually agree with
you on that one. Given the recent run-up in AMAT and
the NASDAQ averages, weakness in Yahoo will certainly
spill over to the rest of the technology sector and
will likely spur some moderate profit taking. I don't
see a tremendous amount of damage being done here,
but something of a short term pullback would not be
Very nice post.
However, I never said that
AMAT is bad company or their stock is overvalued. You
must read posts more carefully before you jump on. Pay
at least as much attantion as you pay evaluating PE
for this comapny. I said, and I repeat that AMAT will
be AFFECTED by YHOO's earnings and overall market
reaction to it. If you have difficulties to understand
such statement, ask Woos - he acts like he understands
Thank you for your excellent post on PE...
Unfortunatly, it is obvious that most here do not understand
the stocks they are buyin and how they work... Most
shorters will not pay attention tho..... The forward PE of
AMAT is in the 20s, but most of the posters here on
the short side do not realize this or it does not fit
their agenda of hype.... You obviously understand whuts
goin on tho and were kind enuff to try and set them
straight. But people have tried before and the shorters
Also, the trailing PE is high
because of a ONE TIME CHARGE of 250-500 million for
reduction of force and paring down to the lean machine AMAT
is today.... But then, this does not fit the short
agenda of hype so they don't wanna hear this either..
Any company that has 1-2 BILLION dollars in reserve
cash is doin SOMETHIN right.....
Just about 18 months ago, AMAT was in trouble. It dropped from around $45 to $21. AMAT goes through this cycle every couple of years.
AMAT is one of the best managed companies, I think everyone should own some. However, I still believe its still too expensive (I probably am the only one out there).
Don't pay more than a P/E ratio of more than 25 with respect to current earnings. I never believed analyst when they expected earnings to almost double in one year, especially a large company like AMAT. Remember AMAT is still a high flyer stock and when it comes down, it comes down hard. Just look at its past.
AMAT is a great company, but I honestly feel it will go down to $25, before it moves up nicely.
take your pick: 18months ago or 3 years, the IC
industry has been in oversupply...leading fabs are now all
FULL. They need more capacity and hence, AMAT
equipment. The cycle is just starting into full swing. This
is a feast/famine industry. It's the
capacity/investment cycle to look at not just where was an IC stock
priced last year. Prev, the only full fabs were at
Intel,; now only the bottom tier has idle fabs. (take a
look at Ti stock...a little momentum happening there,
it'll happen at AMAT).