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Applied Materials, Inc. Message Board

  • yahoo yahoo May 6, 2005 3:42 PM Flag

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    • Does that mean I'm buying today

    • Read post # 17300 - 17317 . Pay particular attention to the last sentance in each post .

    • I was just kidding. You understand, of course you
      do. My apologies, AMAT is down 2 1/8 now, wait for
      Gordon, appreciate your correction and intelligent (Woos,
      learn from Gordon and I) comments. I do expect AMAT to
      correct for a while and thats why I bought Aug. 75 puts.
      I paid $7, hope to sell today at least for
      Happy trading/investing/speculation!!!!

    • What don't I understand?
      ( just curious )

    • I apologize for implying that you said AMAT was
      overvalued - that comment was actually directed at the
      poster you were respoding to in your earlier post. As
      for Yahoo's effect on AMAT - I actually agree with
      you on that one. Given the recent run-up in AMAT and
      the NASDAQ averages, weakness in Yahoo will certainly
      spill over to the rest of the technology sector and
      will likely spur some moderate profit taking. I don't
      see a tremendous amount of damage being done here,
      but something of a short term pullback would not be

    • Very nice post.
      However, I never said that
      AMAT is bad company or their stock is overvalued. You
      must read posts more carefully before you jump on. Pay
      at least as much attantion as you pay evaluating PE
      for this comapny. I said, and I repeat that AMAT will
      be AFFECTED by YHOO's earnings and overall market
      reaction to it. If you have difficulties to understand
      such statement, ask Woos - he acts like he understands

    • Thank you for your excellent post on PE...
      Unfortunatly, it is obvious that most here do not understand
      the stocks they are buyin and how they work... Most
      shorters will not pay attention tho..... The forward PE of
      AMAT is in the 20s, but most of the posters here on
      the short side do not realize this or it does not fit
      their agenda of hype.... You obviously understand whuts
      goin on tho and were kind enuff to try and set them
      straight. But people have tried before and the shorters
      never listen....

      Also, the trailing PE is high
      because of a ONE TIME CHARGE of 250-500 million for
      reduction of force and paring down to the lean machine AMAT
      is today.... But then, this does not fit the short
      agenda of hype so they don't wanna hear this either..

      Any company that has 1-2 BILLION dollars in reserve
      cash is doin SOMETHIN right.....

    • Just about 18 months ago, AMAT was in trouble. It dropped from around $45 to $21. AMAT goes through this cycle every couple of years.

      AMAT is one of the best managed companies, I think everyone should own some. However, I still believe its still too expensive (I probably am the only one out there).

      Don't pay more than a P/E ratio of more than 25 with respect to current earnings. I never believed analyst when they expected earnings to almost double in one year, especially a large company like AMAT. Remember AMAT is still a high flyer stock and when it comes down, it comes down hard. Just look at its past.

      AMAT is a great company, but I honestly feel it will go down to $25, before it moves up nicely.

      • 2 Replies to neilpatel
      • take your pick: 18months ago or 3 years, the IC
        industry has been in oversupply...leading fabs are now all
        FULL. They need more capacity and hence, AMAT
        equipment. The cycle is just starting into full swing. This
        is a feast/famine industry. It's the
        capacity/investment cycle to look at not just where was an IC stock
        priced last year. Prev, the only full fabs were at
        Intel,; now only the bottom tier has idle fabs. (take a
        look at Ti stock...a little momentum happening there,
        it'll happen at AMAT).

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