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Syntroleum Corporation Message Board

  • ontopofitall4u ontopofitall4u Mar 9, 2013 12:29 PM Flag

    Am I seing things or have RINS jumped 10 cents a day for the last 2-3 days?

    Didn't they start off this week in the 70 cent area and according to our RINS specialist Jbell, they have risen up to $1.00-$1.10.
    Are RINS scarce due to so many plants not producing?
    Can this be a conspiracy to get RINS up, along with the $1 subsidy, to make profitability much better?
    When are they going to pen this plant up with this HUGE profit potential?
    Maybe a better question would be, When did they open the plant and start the restart?
    Doesn't restart take about 10 days to get back to full production?
    SYNM is a tightening spring ready to be let loose. When they finally let her loose, you better get out of the way.

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    • By the way ... SYNM waiting may not have been a horrible thing. They would have been producing at lower RIN rates and eating through the mandate (being the highest volume producer). They can now capitalize on the higher RIN rates and the push back the date the mandate is met this year ...

      Maybe that was their plan all along here! Seriously, though ... with the RIN fraud debacle, prices were artificially depressed for awhile, too.

      • 1 Reply to jkl8180
      • greenguru58@rocketmail.com greenguru58 Mar 12, 2013 12:43 PM Flag

        RIN prices are soaring with prices having hit $1 each on Friday, a fact which Valero told the Wall Street Journal will likely get passed on to consumers later down the line. Prices are up because blenders refuse to add more than 10% ethanol at the pump but the blending mandate requires more ethanol in the fuel mix, so if they choose to not buy ethanol, blenders must buy RINs.

        Game on.

    • There were several threads in here, and recemtly too, explaining the whys anmd wherefores...personally, I think it had to do with the 2013 mandate, the court victory for the EPA, and most importantly, the "fixing" of the RIN system itself...but in truth, I dont care WHAT caused it, just keep going!!!!!

      • 1 Reply to jbell47us
      • Since I try to follow both sectors of biofuel, here is my take. I saw it coming while 'hanging on' for SYNM to chime in.

        The RINs is an obligation by the obligated parties(OP) for all fuel types that they produced, combined. So there is substition allowed, upward but not downward.

        In this episode, D6 for ethanol is what is driving the base. If an OP needs RINs, the D5 is worth 1.7 times the D6...

        Why is D6 going up? Well the ethanol operators, running short on cash, have pared down to satisfy week-to-week demand since last October. Why? without enough corn available for the mandate, imports came into the picture.
        Excess imxports in 4Q killed D6 and D5, D4. The industry(ethanol and biodiese) has a low production in 4Q, rins went down.

        Now come 1Q, ethanol producers shut down a total of 20 plants - just for enough corn to run at 85% capacity.
        Brazil was buying too much gasoline to substiture for ethanol that they were selling to us. Their sugarcane fields had rain so 2013-14 look good. So they augmented thir ethanol mix to 25%,. plus they are paying a bit extra for the ethanol to keep it home. How do they do this? Raise their price of diesel in Brazil , this raises the price of ethanol locally too , but their flex cars owners will switch at the pump automatically.

        Now back here, less imports ( there will still be some but not as much), OP needs more ethanol for Spring and Summer. If you have a CLOSED plant ( we know this with SYNM), you need money to start it up. Just having a high price does not cover startup feedstock price, staffing.... So for any ethanol plant to startup, they need high prices, high RINS AND something else.

        This "something else: " is a long tail price curve that once they start up , they will get to sell this supply at a good price. More money is needed to buy the futures... Higher RINs, just to buy the futures contracts.
        Good news: ethanol futures contracts, on Friday, got strectched to be positive until Sept!

 
SYNM
3.350.00(0.00%)Jun 6 4:00 PMEDT

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