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  • gotta_house_on_oyster_bay gotta_house_on_oyster_bay Feb 2, 2004 12:18 PM Flag

    Netgear = $40

     

    1. Netgear raises rev & earnings guidance. They did not raise to .14 on 87 million to fall short. I expect .20 on 100 million putting the company on pace to earn .80 on 1/2 billion. Tech's are trading @ 40x. This equals $32.

    2. Netgear currently trades 1.5 x sales. Cisco trades 9x sales. I'm not saying NTGR is CSCO, but come on meet me in the middle. NTGR trades 4x sales, this puts us at around $32. This assumes NO GROWTH going forward.

    3.Institutions, mutual funds and major wire houses are salivating at the opportunity to tie down LARGE blocks of stock without dramatically affecting the price of the stock. Think about it....how can a mutual fund that wants, lets say, a million shares get the stock without driving it north of $20?? They wait and purchase any insiders that may want to sell. Why would any institution, fund or wire house buy a ton of stock until they get this stock that may or may not be coming out. So they wait...and when they get it, you'll see buy recs, firms and funds buying stock off the market to drive the price up to reflect unrealized profits on the stock they amass at these discounted levels.

    3. We can only assume that Mr. Lo is doing whats in the best interest of the company. I'm certain he is under the advice of his underwriters and is working diligently to increase shareholder value.

    4. NTGR has one of the worlds largest financial institutions behind him (Lehman). They obviously are not buying aggressively at this level. Why??? Not because they don't believe in NTGR, on the contrary they are waiting to get there hands on any insider stock that may be coming out. Once they get it....look out!

    5. In my opinion, Lehman will get situated just prior to earnings (perhaps the cause in delay of the numbers). Earnings will generate big demand for NTGR stock and Lehman will be holding the bag. A huge score for all.

    Netgear's fundamentals warrant a much higher price. That price will begin to get realized as this month progresses. IMHO

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