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Advanced Emissions Solutions, Inc. Message Board

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  • rotsevnilio1 rotsevnilio1 Jul 14, 2010 3:41 PM Flag

    ADA-ES value

    Slight revisions give $8/share, not including opportunity call options

    ADA-CS
    Book value: $21.8
    Assume plant ROE = 16%; WACC = 12% => P/B = 1.3x
    Asset value = $21.8*1.3 = $29.0

    Cyclean
    Pre-tax cash flow = $6.5/yr; assume 35% fully taxable, a-t CF = $4.3/yr (two units)
    NPV = $24.3 w/ 12% WACC

    Accrued liabilities = $8.6
    Deferred tax assets = $8.5
    Debt = $0
    ACI cash = $2.0
    NexGen cash = $4.5

    EV = $29 + $24.3 + $8.5 - $8.6 + 2.0 + $4.5 = $59.7 = Equity (no debt)
    Per share = $59.7 / 7.4 = $8.00

    Asset (cash flow) optionality not considered (above):
    - ACI refined coal royalties of $1/ton
    - CO2 capture opportunity
    - Additional Cyclean units ($1.60 per share per unit)
    - Expansion of ADA-CS
    - Core Hg removal business

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ADES
7.55+0.06(+0.80%)May 25 3:57 PMEDT