In general, what does a pound of AC cost and what is a resonable profit margin?
Not know a lot about AC, I assume the plant will do 125 to 150 million pounds per year. Is $1/pound for AC and a 10% to 15% profit margin a resonable expectation?
Any thoughts would be appreciated.
Looking at the 3 month chart, spike in volume indicates a change in direction either with news or followed by news (small caps have a hard time holding secrets). It will be interesting to see if up trend continues.
"buying in 10% of the shares would be very do able"
True enough. Of course, that would likely be followed up with stock grants to insiders, amounting to 10% of shares-out, to reward the clowns for their unbroken string of "Epic Failures"
While I don't know if we'll get it next week, I'd like to know what the "run rate" is at both the refined coal plants and the AC plant.
On the Calgon law suit, assume they'll settle for about $10 million. If so, buyign in 10% of the shares would be very do able (they don't have debt and would have about $2.50/share in cash).
maybe your right. This said, my bet is the refined coal plants will work and the stock goes up to about $10 by year end.
The sell off last Q was by investors who focused on the lack of AC plant sales (the old focus). If the refined coal plants work, AC plant sales will just be a hobby.
Obviously, the company's track record isn't great and that why its trading at $5.
Just my opinion.
a few problems MD841. First is that you "assume...the refined coal plants start to work"
Never assume that anything ADA-ES ever plans or says or touts will ever be realized or "work", otherwise dissapointment awaits.
Second is that you assume there will be "revenue" even if they can get to "to work". Revenue is a foreign concept to the academics at ADA-ES, so even if they can get the plant "to work", don't hold your breath for any revenue.
Finally you assume that revenues, if there are any, will lead to earnings. LOL! ADA-ES is run by academics. They do not know the definition of earnings, as capitalism, commerce and academics do not mix.
I assume that if the refined coal plants start to work, renvue will jump and so will earnings. Year to year comparisions will look great. The same lack of liquidy that caused the stock to drop $2 will send her back up fast.
It does appear "the market" gave zero value to the positive news which came out in the earnings release.
This said, revenue from the refined coal plants is projected to be $16 million/year (net $8 million to ADA, but it plans to report gross revenue). Hopefully their comment about the plants status next week.
Its a joke. I see on Yahoo that the salaries of the entire management group are listed as "na". Are they so embarrassed of what they are taking for pay for what value they deliver that they won't publicly disclose salaries?
ADA-ES will never replace Dr Durham. Nominees to the board of directors are hand picked by the good doctor and would likely support him even if he took the stock to the pink sheets. nobody is going to wage a proxy fight over this situation as it is too small.
Until the good Doctor has an epiphany of self awareness -- that he is not a capable CEO or businessman, and is only a capable technologist and engineer -- then outside shareholders are stuck with his "leadership" as CEO.
The company has said that operating margins are about 50% with AC selling for about $1 a pound. The first line capacity is 150 million pounds. I think it will likely be a couple of years until capacity is sold out. Assuming sales are 150 million pounds at YE 2011, the plant would generate about $75 million a year EBITDA, of which ADES share would be about 30% or $25 million. Assign any EBITDA multiple you want, but I am using a conservative multiple of 5, which would value the ADES share of the plant at about $125 million. Discount it back, but I think the AC plant stake alone is worth multiples of ADES's market cap.
ADA-ES' stake in the plant is worth about $4 per ades share, in my view, based on its expected ROIC/WACC ratio.
So, refined coal, cyclean, optionality on AC plant expansion, and the core ACI systems business are near-free at this point. I don't include carbon capture in this list since its option value is not worth much, in my view, given its low probability and long duration.