January Export Data
Thermal Exports Up Y/Y; But Momentum Might be Falling
T. Parker Host reported coal exports out of Baltimore and Hampton Roads. January
met exports for our coverage were down 19% y/y but up 29% sequentially.
Thermal exports were up 28% y/y, but fell 47% sequentially. Sequentially, ANR
had the strongest January amongst met exporters, but BTU had a strong thermal lift
in January. Sequential thermal exports were sluggish amongst ACI/ANR/CNX.
Total Met Exports Down 2% Y/Y; Thermal up 25% Y/Y
Jan thermal exports to Europe/Other are up 25% vs. Jan-2012 and up 4% vs. Dec-
2012. Met exports to China were up 116% y/y and 42% m/m. Met exports to
Indian, Japan, and Korea fell in January, down 50%, 25%, and 38% y/y,
respectively. Met exports to Brazil were up 28% y/y but down 11% sequentially.
Exports a Priority for US Miners; But Demand Remains Tepid
2012 was a very strong year for exports, especially thermal exports. The miners
under our coverage saw thermal exports rise 92% in 2012 vs. 2011 (out of
Baltimore and Hampton Roads). Conversely, met exports were down roughly 16%
y/y. While thermal exports remain elevated, expectations are for this market to
normalize as international pricing and European demand remains weak. That said,
US coal miners have not been shy about their goal to drive more sales into the
export market. Given low domestic pricing and fuel switching risk, we believe expanding this market makes strategic sense despite its current tepidness