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Sequenom Inc. Message Board

  • joemadden678@ymail.com joemadden678 Mar 5, 2013 10:16 AM Flag

    Don't get your hopes up....

    Happens every time. Shorts can't keep this down into earnings. Too expensive. They will let this go, and push it down again when volume dries up next week.

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    • If they achieve the run rate that Harry so confidently announced on the last call, they should reach the high end of their guidance. If they don't, and barring some other exceptional, factual announcement, I think it takes a beating. Personally, I think they beat estimates toward the high end of the range. One item that makes me a little nervous is the incremental revenue coming for the salesforce. It looks like they're run rating at about $22M in MAT21 revenue if you assume $235 per test with no reimbursement. That's about 282k per rep. Doesn't seem like a lot of revenue per rep, but some of those reps are very new and had no impact on revs.

      On that note, the incremental annual revenue increase of $4M, is only about 141k/new rep. 75 reps is an increase of 55 from the 20 at launch. Of those 75, 25 were added in 3Q so probably had no impact on revs. So I figure the 30 reps that were hired since launch but prior to 3Q were, in part, responsible for that $4M of incremental revenue. That doesn't seem like a lot of revenue per rep either. I'm a little worried that expenses are way out in front of revenues but if, and this is a big if, reimbursement takes hold, we should see an enormous bump in revenues. That's really all that matters right now. I'd say reimbursement matters a lot more than the IP suit at that moment. Get that, and we're all in good shape.

    • So does pessimism make you feel better?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to i_am_not_2012
      • joemadden678@ymail.com joemadden678 Mar 5, 2013 10:57 AM Flag

        I'm an optimist, but this POS is all over the place, nothing to do with news, performance, results, success, or anything logical. This is a playground for a few Wall Street types with very deep pockets and lots of patience. They are executing a plan to make loads of cash on this thing, and reality tells me that this will continue for a little while. The only reason I am still here is because I am an optimist, and this will turn around in time once losses are a thing of the past.

 
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