If they achieve the run rate that Harry so confidently announced on the last call, they should reach the high end of their guidance. If they don't, and barring some other exceptional, factual announcement, I think it takes a beating. Personally, I think they beat estimates toward the high end of the range. One item that makes me a little nervous is the incremental revenue coming for the salesforce. It looks like they're run rating at about $22M in MAT21 revenue if you assume $235 per test with no reimbursement. That's about 282k per rep. Doesn't seem like a lot of revenue per rep, but some of those reps are very new and had no impact on revs.
On that note, the incremental annual revenue increase of $4M, is only about 141k/new rep. 75 reps is an increase of 55 from the 20 at launch. Of those 75, 25 were added in 3Q so probably had no impact on revs. So I figure the 30 reps that were hired since launch but prior to 3Q were, in part, responsible for that $4M of incremental revenue. That doesn't seem like a lot of revenue per rep either. I'm a little worried that expenses are way out in front of revenues but if, and this is a big if, reimbursement takes hold, we should see an enormous bump in revenues. That's really all that matters right now. I'd say reimbursement matters a lot more than the IP suit at that moment. Get that, and we're all in good shape.
I'm sorry Joe, readpred is the pessimist he using $235 as a number when the company has said the have been $1200 to $1600 per test reimbursement and then multiplying it by the reps not the tests. That number wouldn't even keep the lights on and the doors open next week...
I'm an optimist, but this POS is all over the place, nothing to do with news, performance, results, success, or anything logical. This is a playground for a few Wall Street types with very deep pockets and lots of patience. They are executing a plan to make loads of cash on this thing, and reality tells me that this will continue for a little while. The only reason I am still here is because I am an optimist, and this will turn around in time once losses are a thing of the past.