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GTT Communications, Inc. Message Board

  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend Feb 21, 2014 7:33 PM Flag

    What happened today Fri, 2-21

    The stock had goten some altitude sickness by virtue of the fact that there was hardly any real consolidation areas between $9 or so and $12.50. From a technical perpective, as soon as it showed it was not going to break any higher than $12.50, that pretty much meant the next thing it had to do was too see how low it could do before selling interest dried up- at least temporarily- and buying interest resumed.

    So today it groped around again.
    Once a firmer footing for a bottom is in I, for one, will be happier.

    To me it, had some recent technical flags. With no support at all below $12, once that was cracked- why would anyone place a high bid when weakness over the short term looks so assured?

    This is all a technical move IMO, if I can reuse that phrase. It's actually normal.

    Shorts- if in fact, there ARE that many here- sensed temporary "precariousness" based on technicals and as soon as the stock ran out of buyers at +$12, the next phase is to get to where GTT runs out of sellers and to where a base- with some support- is formed.

    Money Flow, Volume Accumulation have been positive over the past ten days. Price action was terrible but, nevertheless, there is a divergance that is notable.

    I'm no true technician but I know a little. The problem with anyone looking at GTT's stock lately has been that at some point the momentum would have to curtail a bit and it's much safer to enter on weakness so there's a "wait before I swoop" predatory attitude.

    There is now overhead resistance at $12.50. There will be a bottom placed and a trading range for a while. It'll be a while this time around. Sellin WAS heavy. CC will be very positive. That's my belief anyway. The company is doing great. As long as they continue doing great the stock WILL work it's way upward. Goals are lofty but I, for one, would bet a good sum- they will be obtained. There will be a time horizon to this though.Listen to CC and keep in mind how credible this management is proven to be.

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    • FOTT, thanks as always for your valuable insights. I doubt there is much short interest in GTT -- too small a float and too below the radar, and I'm not sure if "technical" rules apply to a stock with such low volume. I think there are just some people cashing in on rise since September. I've been in this a long time and took some shares out at 9-10. I know some other large holders who are also taking the price spike as an opportunity to "re-balance" their portfolios. I think the fact that the PPS target is around 12 is supporting the notion that now is a time for long time investors to lighten up a bit. My guess is that we bounce around the 10 to 12.5 range for a few months until their is a catalyst for another move -- which I'm hoping is that they are getting bought rather than a miss or a downgrade. I do think a takeover of GTT will be in play sooner rather than later -- the inside guys have been in this while and are getting longer in tooth, it's time for them to move on and I have confidence they can orchestrate a deal that will benefit all us longs. They have a history of doing so.

      • 2 Replies to eggmanlives_1999
      • Thanks. Great feedback. The problem with selling upon attainment of an anayst's price target is two fold. First, you may need to look at the trend, as far as price targets themselves go. Analysts have to assess and reasses based on how things are and how they tend to unfold dynamically.The first target for GTT by any analyst was $6. Then $8. Then $10. Then, even $17. So I'm seeing sort of a trend there. At some point the trend stops but until it does, it may just be my friend.

        The next problem centers around the idea that the reasons for hitting any target in the first place may be the underlying issue of improving revs, margins, new contracts and an improved service offering and value proposition.Those factors don't suddenly cease to be pertinent because a target is hit. They still function.They may even be at an inflection point. For example, in last CC even management didn't expect margins to improve quite as rapidly as they did.

        So do you sell a company with a trend towards growing revenue base and with an improving set of metrics applied to that base, such as margins, (gross, net EBITDA margins) and so forth, plus improving churn, a having a recently significantly improved value proposition--do you sell it based on a target being hit?

        Short term, maybe, if you can find a better investment or if you need a rebalance. I'll admit to some of that rebalancing. But there is always the risk that the underlying factors that cased the attainment of the price target stay well in effect or actually accelerate and the stock goes to $13 or $17 without you.

        In my next post I'll just summarize some things said in the last CC.

      • All respect, but you are wrong. It was clear shorts attack. First they put up MFools article and then suddenly they start selling at any bid price. Stops were triggered and price went over 2$ down only to recover back to 12. Thank you shorts, I have loaded up in 10.50-10.70 range and sold all at 11.80. Waiting for more. GTT will fly after ER, excellent business model and efficient management....

 
GTT
12.80-0.38(-2.88%)Dec 19 4:03 PMEST

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