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Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate Message Board

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Nov 21, 2009 5:35 PM Flag

    Barrons article

    Moreover, the mood on the Street has been unabashedly bullish, even after one of the most explosive rallies this year known to investing man. On that score, Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg, no stranger to this space, has some relevant comments. Picking up on a bullish pronouncement by a chief investment officer of an investment firm that "we're still at levels that are lower than we were before Lehman Brothers [went belly-up]. We're vastly better off than we were then," as symptomatic of what many portfolio managers believe. Dave systematically proceeds to show why that's pure, unadulterated bunk.

    To wit: We have lost 6.2 million jobs since then. The unemployment rate is 10.2% now, versus 6.2% the day before Lehman collapsed. Even with the nascent midyear recovery, real gross domestic product is still down 3% since the summer of 2008. Housing starts are down 30%. Auto sales are down 23%. Bank credit has contracted by $500 billion, or 8%. Household net worth is down $7 trillion.

    There's more: Home prices are down an average of 10%. Office-vacancy rates are up 3.5 percentage points, to 17.2%. Apartment-vacancy rates are up a percentage point to 11.1%. Consumer confidence is down 11 points. The budget deficit has tripled.

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