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Office Depot, Inc. Message Board

  • scottb_43235 scottb_43235 Apr 30, 1999 10:11 PM Flag

    Good day...more to come

    ODP had a good day and I don't see the end in
    site. Here's why:

    1. P/E is about half of what
    SPLS is, which trades between 30-35.
    2. ODP has
    MUCH stronger internet sales with momentum behind
    them.This is VERY significant because there is really as
    yet no dominant net retailer of office supplies and
    ODP has a very efficient distribution mechanism--more
    efficient than SPLS. This makes it an internet play too,
    without the speculation because they are PROFITABLE...if
    they traded at 500 times earnings like some of the NET
    stocks, the price would be out of sight, yet they do have
    the potential to dominate the category on the
    internet, and there's really little or nothing on the
    horizon to beat them there.
    3. ODP's cost of sales is
    lower and could trade at 40 before it would equal SPLS'
    P/E.
    4. Favorable ratings.
    5. Favorable
    technicals.
    6. Good earnings, above street expectations.
    7.
    Aggressive expansion which drives up profitability because
    newer stores do better. Competitors not on this
    level.
    8. Very strong contract/commercial AND catalog
    divisions.
    9. FIRST store in MANHATTAN opens Monday. Brokers
    have the opportunity to see this place firsthand for
    the first time.
    10. Option trades are heavy
    calls--very bullish and no put volume.
    11. Increase on a
    down day for the market with heavy volume pushing it
    higher.

    I screwed up and dumped this stock at 20 1/4.
    Bought back in today at 22. I think it will be above 23
    tomorrow and should toy with 27 by the end of the week. I
    also think that SPLS will continue to fluctuate around
    30-33. However, I would look for ODP to pass it within
    two weeks.

    What do you think? Did I miss
    anything?

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • SPLS has a much better PR machine. ODP may never
      get over the opinion developed during the ODP/SPLS
      merger that SPLS management was superior and ODP
      management was inferior. ODP is due for a bounce after the
      post split consolidation. Many things should have
      moved this stock considerably like the 768% increase in
      internet sales, this is a stock that won't make you rich,
      but over time will make you a good return. Long 1,500
      shares.

      • 1 Reply to slotcar58
      • The opening in Manhattan Monday should help the
        PR.

        The Viking merger brought a damn good management team
        on board, including Bruce Nelson. This team has a
        history of controlling costs and you can see it in just
        last quarter's numbers: ODP was outsold by SPLS by
        about 500 million and still put 50 million more on the
        bottom line. That's good management...knowing how to
        control costs.

        I think the slingshot effect is
        happening right now. Plenty of support at 22...as evidenced
        by afterhours trades at that level. The stock dipped
        after the favorable recommendations which is typical,
        only to rebound with a sharp spike upward as more
        people realize what opportunity there is. That is what
        we are seeing now. I'll be keeping my fingers
        crossed and I've got my money where my mouth is...

    • GO 4 IT!

    • Good PR move to hand out 10,000 STAPLES removers in our new Manhattan store than opened today. Hidden meaning I assume. gp

    • Have you checked ODP service levels in the Charleston area ? I hear they don't perform too well ?

    • looks like things are going well with ODP!
      Unfortunately, I haven't jumped back onboard yet....sounds like
      the thought on the board is that ODP is getting ready
      to soar....is that your opinion? Looks like I missed
      my opportunity in the $19 range, just didn't have
      the cash at the time...ya know?

      Go ODP!

    • that's what the chart looks like......it doesn't
      look like the "beginning of the trend" or
      "intermediate trend" or whatever the correct term was
      violated.....if you go to clearstation, you can pretty much draw
      a base line starting at the lowest low, right on up
      to today's low price, and none of the lows violate
      this base line.....

      and I think that is a good
      thing......

      momentum is still nicely upward.....

      some of the
      other internal indicators are weak, but the good news
      is we didn't break out to the
      downside......

      lets see what happens tomorrow......

      (does any
      one notice that I waffel a lot less when the signals
      are more clear???)(hope THAT's a good indicator)

    • Thanks for the analysis. I like the stock long
      term, but was a little disappointed it didn't move with
      the market at the end of today. I hope long term $23
      was a bad decision on my part, but I'll probably wait
      to see how it holds for now. Again thanks.

    • I was obviously way premature with my 19 1/2 to
      20 1/4 sell. I had originally thought it would go to
      at least 22, and it ended up going to 23. I didn't
      wait for ODP to break meaningful support, so I lost on
      some profit. I saved myself 1/4 in the short term but,
      the real support held and ODP took off.

      I've
      been watching and waiting for this intraday downtrend
      to break. I didn't set a downside goal. There is no
      point trying to guess the extent of a trend. You just
      have to watch and wait for it to break, then start to
      buy. Besides, on the daily chart ODP is still in an
      uptrend. It is testing it's line and holding at the
      moment.

      Seems like a good bet, especially if you think ODP is
      worth at least half as much as SPLS.

    • Last time I checked, it was a long way from 23 to
      40 :-)

      And if I remember correctly, ODP was
      around 24 after the split? -- in reality, it hasn't
      hasn't gone up at all. I will start to feel lots and
      lots and lots better when ODP cracks
      27.

      However, I do think the the positive effects of the Viking
      merger are starting to add to the momentum. If ODP is
      ever realized as a value then it should be taken to at
      least the same level.

      Profitz seems to be right
      most of the time, at least, I like to read his
      posts.

      Let's hope this dog hunts before to long.

    • hey, if any of you guys are interested in
      acquiring a digital camera, there are some at office depot
      unbelievably low. a kodak dc-120 zoom for $20 (sku 290791), an
      hp c20 for $30 (340288) and a kodak dc-210 for $50
      (304442). just thought i'd let you guys know

    • View More Messages
 
ODP
5.53-0.08(-1.43%)Sep 22 4:03 PMEDT

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