ODP had a good day and I don't see the end in
site. Here's why:
1. P/E is about half of what
SPLS is, which trades between 30-35.
2. ODP has
MUCH stronger internet sales with momentum behind
them.This is VERY significant because there is really as
yet no dominant net retailer of office supplies and
ODP has a very efficient distribution mechanism--more
efficient than SPLS. This makes it an internet play too,
without the speculation because they are PROFITABLE...if
they traded at 500 times earnings like some of the NET
stocks, the price would be out of sight, yet they do have
the potential to dominate the category on the
internet, and there's really little or nothing on the
horizon to beat them there.
3. ODP's cost of sales is
lower and could trade at 40 before it would equal SPLS'
4. Favorable ratings.
6. Good earnings, above street expectations.
Aggressive expansion which drives up profitability because
newer stores do better. Competitors not on this
8. Very strong contract/commercial AND catalog
9. FIRST store in MANHATTAN opens Monday. Brokers
have the opportunity to see this place firsthand for
the first time.
10. Option trades are heavy
calls--very bullish and no put volume.
11. Increase on a
down day for the market with heavy volume pushing it
I screwed up and dumped this stock at 20 1/4.
Bought back in today at 22. I think it will be above 23
tomorrow and should toy with 27 by the end of the week. I
also think that SPLS will continue to fluctuate around
30-33. However, I would look for ODP to pass it within
What do you think? Did I miss
SPLS has a much better PR machine. ODP may never
get over the opinion developed during the ODP/SPLS
merger that SPLS management was superior and ODP
management was inferior. ODP is due for a bounce after the
post split consolidation. Many things should have
moved this stock considerably like the 768% increase in
internet sales, this is a stock that won't make you rich,
but over time will make you a good return. Long 1,500
The opening in Manhattan Monday should help the
The Viking merger brought a damn good management team
on board, including Bruce Nelson. This team has a
history of controlling costs and you can see it in just
last quarter's numbers: ODP was outsold by SPLS by
about 500 million and still put 50 million more on the
bottom line. That's good management...knowing how to
I think the slingshot effect is
happening right now. Plenty of support at 22...as evidenced
by afterhours trades at that level. The stock dipped
after the favorable recommendations which is typical,
only to rebound with a sharp spike upward as more
people realize what opportunity there is. That is what
we are seeing now. I'll be keeping my fingers
crossed and I've got my money where my mouth is...
looks like things are going well with ODP!
Unfortunately, I haven't jumped back onboard yet....sounds like
the thought on the board is that ODP is getting ready
to soar....is that your opinion? Looks like I missed
my opportunity in the $19 range, just didn't have
the cash at the time...ya know?
that's what the chart looks like......it doesn't
look like the "beginning of the trend" or
"intermediate trend" or whatever the correct term was
violated.....if you go to clearstation, you can pretty much draw
a base line starting at the lowest low, right on up
to today's low price, and none of the lows violate
this base line.....
and I think that is a good
momentum is still nicely upward.....
some of the
other internal indicators are weak, but the good news
is we didn't break out to the
lets see what happens tomorrow......
one notice that I waffel a lot less when the signals
are more clear???)(hope THAT's a good indicator)
Thanks for the analysis. I like the stock long
term, but was a little disappointed it didn't move with
the market at the end of today. I hope long term $23
was a bad decision on my part, but I'll probably wait
to see how it holds for now. Again thanks.
I was obviously way premature with my 19 1/2 to
20 1/4 sell. I had originally thought it would go to
at least 22, and it ended up going to 23. I didn't
wait for ODP to break meaningful support, so I lost on
some profit. I saved myself 1/4 in the short term but,
the real support held and ODP took off.
been watching and waiting for this intraday downtrend
to break. I didn't set a downside goal. There is no
point trying to guess the extent of a trend. You just
have to watch and wait for it to break, then start to
buy. Besides, on the daily chart ODP is still in an
uptrend. It is testing it's line and holding at the
Seems like a good bet, especially if you think ODP is
worth at least half as much as SPLS.
Last time I checked, it was a long way from 23 to
And if I remember correctly, ODP was
around 24 after the split? -- in reality, it hasn't
hasn't gone up at all. I will start to feel lots and
lots and lots better when ODP cracks
However, I do think the the positive effects of the Viking
merger are starting to add to the momentum. If ODP is
ever realized as a value then it should be taken to at
least the same level.
Profitz seems to be right
most of the time, at least, I like to read his
Let's hope this dog hunts before to long.
hey, if any of you guys are interested in
acquiring a digital camera, there are some at office depot
unbelievably low. a kodak dc-120 zoom for $20 (sku 290791), an
hp c20 for $30 (340288) and a kodak dc-210 for $50
(304442). just thought i'd let you guys know