ODP had a good day and I don't see the end in
site. Here's why:
1. P/E is about half of what
SPLS is, which trades between 30-35.
2. ODP has
MUCH stronger internet sales with momentum behind
them.This is VERY significant because there is really as
yet no dominant net retailer of office supplies and
ODP has a very efficient distribution mechanism--more
efficient than SPLS. This makes it an internet play too,
without the speculation because they are PROFITABLE...if
they traded at 500 times earnings like some of the NET
stocks, the price would be out of sight, yet they do have
the potential to dominate the category on the
internet, and there's really little or nothing on the
horizon to beat them there.
3. ODP's cost of sales is
lower and could trade at 40 before it would equal SPLS'
4. Favorable ratings.
6. Good earnings, above street expectations.
Aggressive expansion which drives up profitability because
newer stores do better. Competitors not on this
8. Very strong contract/commercial AND catalog
9. FIRST store in MANHATTAN opens Monday. Brokers
have the opportunity to see this place firsthand for
the first time.
10. Option trades are heavy
calls--very bullish and no put volume.
11. Increase on a
down day for the market with heavy volume pushing it
I screwed up and dumped this stock at 20 1/4.
Bought back in today at 22. I think it will be above 23
tomorrow and should toy with 27 by the end of the week. I
also think that SPLS will continue to fluctuate around
30-33. However, I would look for ODP to pass it within
What do you think? Did I miss
even tho we did close below the 50 day
average(again) we have been above it, the profit takers are just
giving us a chance to build more momentum to smash thru
it.....we DID end up right about at the 9 day average (the
short term one that has been moving up so
the 20 still hasn't turned up, and the 13 is still
heading down sharply......
we need a few more up
hey, if any of you guys are interested in
acquiring a digital camera, there are some at office depot
unbelievably low. a kodak dc-120 zoom for $20 (sku 290791), an
hp c20 for $30 (340288) and a kodak dc-210 for $50
(304442). just thought i'd let you guys know
that's what the chart looks like......it doesn't
look like the "beginning of the trend" or
"intermediate trend" or whatever the correct term was
violated.....if you go to clearstation, you can pretty much draw
a base line starting at the lowest low, right on up
to today's low price, and none of the lows violate
this base line.....
and I think that is a good
momentum is still nicely upward.....
some of the
other internal indicators are weak, but the good news
is we didn't break out to the
lets see what happens tomorrow......
one notice that I waffel a lot less when the signals
are more clear???)(hope THAT's a good indicator)
Thanks for the analysis. I like the stock long
term, but was a little disappointed it didn't move with
the market at the end of today. I hope long term $23
was a bad decision on my part, but I'll probably wait
to see how it holds for now. Again thanks.
I was obviously way premature with my 19 1/2 to
20 1/4 sell. I had originally thought it would go to
at least 22, and it ended up going to 23. I didn't
wait for ODP to break meaningful support, so I lost on
some profit. I saved myself 1/4 in the short term but,
the real support held and ODP took off.
been watching and waiting for this intraday downtrend
to break. I didn't set a downside goal. There is no
point trying to guess the extent of a trend. You just
have to watch and wait for it to break, then start to
buy. Besides, on the daily chart ODP is still in an
uptrend. It is testing it's line and holding at the
Seems like a good bet, especially if you think ODP is
worth at least half as much as SPLS.
I was in at 18 3/8 and out at 23 in ten days
(p.s. you scared me with your call at 20 1/4). In your
opinion why won't this test 18 again before heading
north? I'd love to get back in at the bottom of the
trading range. Thanks.
Lots of positive stuff and lots of new faces on
the board. Ya gotta love it when everybody is jumping
in and talking positive, just gotta love. looks like
good things are ahead.
You know I just hate to
talk about negative stuff, its, well its negative, ya
Anyway, I'm not to sure the Viking thing is all that
intergrated yet. I think the international piece is doing
well, but mostly the former Viking guys are runing
that. The opening in Japan went well and they are
getting some business, but it will still be next year at
least before they turn a profit there. Viking hd
several call centers around the counrty, 5 I think, and
they are each still run independently of ODP's call
centers. Viking had 10 or so warehouses around the country
and none of those have been combined with the ODP
warehouses. At least not yet.
I actually think that
ODP is being very smart in taking this real slow to
avoid management conflicts and to avoid some of their
better people run for the exits. I just don't think the
full synergy that we were promised during the merger
has yet to be realized.
But to be positive,
and I like being positive, I think there should be a
real bang from the inventory programs that they have
in place. I was actually surprised that earning were
not higher because of it. I mean, if you buy more
stuff from a supplier than anyone else in the world,
then you can pretty much tell them that you want to be
the low cost buyer and that you want it in a certain
place in a certain time. And if they don't want to do
that then you'll buy that file folder or case of paper
from the competitor down the road.
way to much for me, and its way past my bedtime,
gotta get my beauty sleep at my age, don't you
And remember, its only my opinion, so its not worth
looks like the price landed about on the 20 day
I don't think we violated the beginning of a trend,
but I hope we don't drop more
the pause that refreshes???? sure hope
scott? profitz? any comments?...your short term TA seems
a lot sharper than mine.... (also comments welcome
from anyone else who has some
thanks in advance....
good luck all