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Office Depot, Inc. Message Board

  • scottb_43235 scottb_43235 Apr 30, 1999 10:11 PM Flag

    Good day...more to come

    ODP had a good day and I don't see the end in
    site. Here's why:

    1. P/E is about half of what
    SPLS is, which trades between 30-35.
    2. ODP has
    MUCH stronger internet sales with momentum behind
    them.This is VERY significant because there is really as
    yet no dominant net retailer of office supplies and
    ODP has a very efficient distribution mechanism--more
    efficient than SPLS. This makes it an internet play too,
    without the speculation because they are PROFITABLE...if
    they traded at 500 times earnings like some of the NET
    stocks, the price would be out of sight, yet they do have
    the potential to dominate the category on the
    internet, and there's really little or nothing on the
    horizon to beat them there.
    3. ODP's cost of sales is
    lower and could trade at 40 before it would equal SPLS'
    P/E.
    4. Favorable ratings.
    5. Favorable
    technicals.
    6. Good earnings, above street expectations.
    7.
    Aggressive expansion which drives up profitability because
    newer stores do better. Competitors not on this
    level.
    8. Very strong contract/commercial AND catalog
    divisions.
    9. FIRST store in MANHATTAN opens Monday. Brokers
    have the opportunity to see this place firsthand for
    the first time.
    10. Option trades are heavy
    calls--very bullish and no put volume.
    11. Increase on a
    down day for the market with heavy volume pushing it
    higher.

    I screwed up and dumped this stock at 20 1/4.
    Bought back in today at 22. I think it will be above 23
    tomorrow and should toy with 27 by the end of the week. I
    also think that SPLS will continue to fluctuate around
    30-33. However, I would look for ODP to pass it within
    two weeks.

    What do you think? Did I miss
    anything?

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • even tho we did close below the 50 day
      average(again) we have been above it, the profit takers are just
      giving us a chance to build more momentum to smash thru
      it.....we DID end up right about at the 9 day average (the
      short term one that has been moving up so
      nicely).....

      the 20 still hasn't turned up, and the 13 is still
      heading down sharply......

      we need a few more up
      days.....

      good luck

    • hey, if any of you guys are interested in
      acquiring a digital camera, there are some at office depot
      unbelievably low. a kodak dc-120 zoom for $20 (sku 290791), an
      hp c20 for $30 (340288) and a kodak dc-210 for $50
      (304442). just thought i'd let you guys know

    • that's what the chart looks like......it doesn't
      look like the "beginning of the trend" or
      "intermediate trend" or whatever the correct term was
      violated.....if you go to clearstation, you can pretty much draw
      a base line starting at the lowest low, right on up
      to today's low price, and none of the lows violate
      this base line.....

      and I think that is a good
      thing......

      momentum is still nicely upward.....

      some of the
      other internal indicators are weak, but the good news
      is we didn't break out to the
      downside......

      lets see what happens tomorrow......

      (does any
      one notice that I waffel a lot less when the signals
      are more clear???)(hope THAT's a good indicator)

    • Thanks for the analysis. I like the stock long
      term, but was a little disappointed it didn't move with
      the market at the end of today. I hope long term $23
      was a bad decision on my part, but I'll probably wait
      to see how it holds for now. Again thanks.

    • Sorry about that. It is name I don't use much anymore.

    • I was obviously way premature with my 19 1/2 to
      20 1/4 sell. I had originally thought it would go to
      at least 22, and it ended up going to 23. I didn't
      wait for ODP to break meaningful support, so I lost on
      some profit. I saved myself 1/4 in the short term but,
      the real support held and ODP took off.

      I've
      been watching and waiting for this intraday downtrend
      to break. I didn't set a downside goal. There is no
      point trying to guess the extent of a trend. You just
      have to watch and wait for it to break, then start to
      buy. Besides, on the daily chart ODP is still in an
      uptrend. It is testing it's line and holding at the
      moment.

      Seems like a good bet, especially if you think ODP is
      worth at least half as much as SPLS.

    • I was in at 18 3/8 and out at 23 in ten days
      (p.s. you scared me with your call at 20 1/4). In your
      opinion why won't this test 18 again before heading
      north? I'd love to get back in at the bottom of the
      trading range. Thanks.

    • The downtrend has broken.

    • Lots of positive stuff and lots of new faces on
      the board. Ya gotta love it when everybody is jumping
      in and talking positive, just gotta love. looks like
      good things are ahead.

      You know I just hate to
      talk about negative stuff, its, well its negative, ya
      know?

      Anyway, I'm not to sure the Viking thing is all that
      intergrated yet. I think the international piece is doing
      well, but mostly the former Viking guys are runing
      that. The opening in Japan went well and they are
      getting some business, but it will still be next year at
      least before they turn a profit there. Viking hd
      several call centers around the counrty, 5 I think, and
      they are each still run independently of ODP's call
      centers. Viking had 10 or so warehouses around the country
      and none of those have been combined with the ODP
      warehouses. At least not yet.

      I actually think that
      ODP is being very smart in taking this real slow to
      avoid management conflicts and to avoid some of their
      better people run for the exits. I just don't think the
      full synergy that we were promised during the merger
      has yet to be realized.

      But to be positive,
      and I like being positive, I think there should be a
      real bang from the inventory programs that they have
      in place. I was actually surprised that earning were
      not higher because of it. I mean, if you buy more
      stuff from a supplier than anyone else in the world,
      then you can pretty much tell them that you want to be
      the low cost buyer and that you want it in a certain
      place in a certain time. And if they don't want to do
      that then you'll buy that file folder or case of paper
      from the competitor down the road.

      Well, thats
      way to much for me, and its way past my bedtime,
      gotta get my beauty sleep at my age, don't you
      know.

      And remember, its only my opinion, so its not worth
      much.

    • looks like the price landed about on the 20 day
      average....

      I don't think we violated the beginning of a trend,
      but I hope we don't drop more
      tomorrow.....

      the pause that refreshes???? sure hope
      so!

      scott? profitz? any comments?...your short term TA seems
      a lot sharper than mine.... (also comments welcome
      from anyone else who has some
      insight)!.....

      thanks in advance....

      good luck all

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ODP
5.04-0.04(-0.79%)Jul 28 4:04 PMEDT

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