especially if it concerns the
BUT the stochastics on the major indicies look pretty
high and extended.......crossovers are still bearish
even after a few days of price
dow has a good ways to go to break into new
highs.....s&p even has a longer way to go.......
we're rolling over again.....hope I'm
ODP looks pretty scary from a technical viewpoint
you may be able to tell I don't think we're out of
the rough just yet....
enjoy the sigh of
I have heard the same reports on the Advantage
program, specifically pricing not consistent, lack of
customer service and high salesperson turnover. In my
opinion, the is SPLS biggest weakness.
If I were
SPLS, I would consider making an offer to BOP to
solidify national account and Fortune 500 business, which
typically yields lager margins and consistent revenue. I
think a SPLS/BOP combination would create a very
powerful office products provider. Also, BOP does not want
to be left in the dust with the CEXP/Buhrmann deal
I will be surprised if OFIS is
still around in 2 years. That ship is sinking faster
than the Titanic.
The CEXP/BT is really the Buhrmann deal, but
smart money says that the new cexp/bt operations will
be CEXP tittled and managed. I like the outlook for
them better than boise.
ODP has been holding a
range the last couple of days and if they continue to
do so, I'd be looking for at least a short rally.
Even though I shorted ODP, I think their a good
operation, it was just time to make some quick
I'll still short on SPLS. I could be real wrong but I
think there still more down side for SPLS, but who
really knows? I have see some very competitive deals out
of the Advantage group lately, and have heard a lot
of talk about their customer service ( specically
the lack of it. I get this feeling that they ( SPLS
advantage) is painting themselves in to an unprofitable
corner may not be able to pull off the "get the business
& we'll make it profitable later" thing. if service
sucks the customer will not hear about price increases.
I've already aired my thoughts on the stores expansion
so won't rehash that whole thing.
BOP may be
a dark horse, but unless they get bought, they will
be a lame horse. Too bad, they are a better decent
operation but they're going to need more horsepower in
coming years. Their IT needs some work too & that going
to be very expensive. I just don't see them going
the distance without some help in one form or
Omx will be the 7-11 / circle-K of office
supplies if they even make it.
Ofis, while can you
really say, i personally think their dead, they just
don't know it yet. Office supply ghosts, if you will.
Maybe vampires though, since its share holders will be
sucked dry before they ever see light
I definately agree with the fact that SPLS is
more proactive. And for that reason, Staples should
remain on the top. I look for SPLS to continue to persue
commercial business via acquisition of a company like BOP,
not to name them specifically. Also, SPLS often has
multiple stores in the same city that tends to lower the
average sales of each store.
My next question,
now that CEXP/BT merger is almost a done deal and
SPLS/ODP continue to open new stores, where does that
leave BOP, OMX and OFIS in the mix?
believe BOP is the dark horse in all
ODP is a much safer bet than SPLS. You are paying
twice as much for SPLS for virtually the same revenue.
ODP is priced as a mature company with a p/e of only
16. SPLS is still priced as a growth company with its
p/e of 37. When the growth of SPLS starts to drop,
its shares will get priced down to a p/e more in line
with the competition.
ODP has better sales in
its US stores than SPLS. In the first quarter, ODP
had 725 stores open and sales of 1.55 billion. That
is $2.1 million per store. SPLS had 960 stores open
and sales of 1.41 billion. That is $1.5 million per
store. There is probably a good explanation for this.
Viking has a much stronger catalog presence than Quill.
SPLS now has the advantage in European stores with it
120 stores vs. ODP's 15, but that is more than offset
with ODP's strong international catalog
The only advantage I can give to SPLS is the company
seems more aggressive. ODP seems more reactive. SPLS
initiated the failed merger with ODP, attempted to buy OMX,
purchased Quill (ODP reacted by purchasing VKNG), and
purchased about 100 European stores. This more aggressive
attitude will probably serve them a little better when the
US market gets saturated. With over 400 new office
stores being opened each year, I see that happening in
about three years.