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Office Depot, Inc. Message Board

  • Redneck_Dan Redneck_Dan Aug 12, 1999 1:22 PM Flag

    Brown Brothers still likes ODP

    reiterates buy ST and LT, don't agree with competitors saturation statement.

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    • especially if it concerns the
      future.....

      BUT the stochastics on the major indicies look pretty
      high and extended.......crossovers are still bearish
      even after a few days of price
      increases......

      dow has a good ways to go to break into new
      highs.....s&p even has a longer way to go.......

      I think
      we're rolling over again.....hope I'm
      wrong....

      ODP looks pretty scary from a technical viewpoint
      too...(still)...

      you may be able to tell I don't think we're out of
      the rough just yet....

      enjoy the sigh of
      relief

    • <EOM>

    • I am going to be wrong. Not the first time and won't be the last. At least we are still up.

    • This means there is interest.

      Cheers,
      .............. Ice

    • I have heard the same reports on the Advantage
      program, specifically pricing not consistent, lack of
      customer service and high salesperson turnover. In my
      opinion, the is SPLS biggest weakness.

      If I were
      SPLS, I would consider making an offer to BOP to
      solidify national account and Fortune 500 business, which
      typically yields lager margins and consistent revenue. I
      think a SPLS/BOP combination would create a very
      powerful office products provider. Also, BOP does not want
      to be left in the dust with the CEXP/Buhrmann deal
      nearly done.

      I will be surprised if OFIS is
      still around in 2 years. That ship is sinking faster
      than the Titanic.

    • we are up at least 1 point at some time today. I have seen ODP take this action many times after a few days of tiny gains. Short rally, dead cat bounce. Call it what you will.

    • The CEXP/BT is really the Buhrmann deal, but
      smart money says that the new cexp/bt operations will
      be CEXP tittled and managed. I like the outlook for
      them better than boise.

      ODP has been holding a
      range the last couple of days and if they continue to
      do so, I'd be looking for at least a short rally.
      Even though I shorted ODP, I think their a good
      operation, it was just time to make some quick
      money.

      I'll still short on SPLS. I could be real wrong but I
      think there still more down side for SPLS, but who
      really knows? I have see some very competitive deals out
      of the Advantage group lately, and have heard a lot
      of talk about their customer service ( specically
      the lack of it. I get this feeling that they ( SPLS
      advantage) is painting themselves in to an unprofitable
      corner may not be able to pull off the "get the business
      & we'll make it profitable later" thing. if service
      sucks the customer will not hear about price increases.
      I've already aired my thoughts on the stores expansion
      so won't rehash that whole thing.

      BOP may be
      a dark horse, but unless they get bought, they will
      be a lame horse. Too bad, they are a better decent
      operation but they're going to need more horsepower in
      coming years. Their IT needs some work too & that going
      to be very expensive. I just don't see them going
      the distance without some help in one form or
      another.

      Omx will be the 7-11 / circle-K of office
      supplies if they even make it.

      Ofis, while can you
      really say, i personally think their dead, they just
      don't know it yet. Office supply ghosts, if you will.
      Maybe vampires though, since its share holders will be
      sucked dry before they ever see light
      again.

      IMHO
      Fastmrkt

    • before this company matures to the point of not expanding.

    • I definately agree with the fact that SPLS is
      more proactive. And for that reason, Staples should
      remain on the top. I look for SPLS to continue to persue
      commercial business via acquisition of a company like BOP,
      not to name them specifically. Also, SPLS often has
      multiple stores in the same city that tends to lower the
      average sales of each store.

      My next question,
      now that CEXP/BT merger is almost a done deal and
      SPLS/ODP continue to open new stores, where does that
      leave BOP, OMX and OFIS in the mix?

      I truly
      believe BOP is the dark horse in all
      this.

      Thoughts?

    • ODP is a much safer bet than SPLS. You are paying
      twice as much for SPLS for virtually the same revenue.
      ODP is priced as a mature company with a p/e of only
      16. SPLS is still priced as a growth company with its
      p/e of 37. When the growth of SPLS starts to drop,
      its shares will get priced down to a p/e more in line
      with the competition.

      ODP has better sales in
      its US stores than SPLS. In the first quarter, ODP
      had 725 stores open and sales of 1.55 billion. That
      is $2.1 million per store. SPLS had 960 stores open
      and sales of 1.41 billion. That is $1.5 million per
      store. There is probably a good explanation for this.


      Viking has a much stronger catalog presence than Quill.
      SPLS now has the advantage in European stores with it
      120 stores vs. ODP's 15, but that is more than offset
      with ODP's strong international catalog
      presence.

      The only advantage I can give to SPLS is the company
      seems more aggressive. ODP seems more reactive. SPLS
      initiated the failed merger with ODP, attempted to buy OMX,
      purchased Quill (ODP reacted by purchasing VKNG), and
      purchased about 100 European stores. This more aggressive
      attitude will probably serve them a little better when the
      US market gets saturated. With over 400 new office
      stores being opened each year, I see that happening in
      about three years.

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