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Office Depot, Inc. Message Board

  • ya_gotta_believe_in_me ya_gotta_believe_in_me Aug 20, 1999 9:55 PM Flag

    now WHO's the dumb bastid? Not me.

    You will recall a couple of weeks back I sold
    this DOG (a.k.a. ODP) at a loss of considerable
    proportions, moving the remaining capital to STAPLES, which
    proceeded to tank as well. Well, the verdict is in. I was
    able to sell SPLS at 26 1/2 and make virtually 100% of
    my money back (sold just before earnings were
    announced), then I bought it back at 23 3/4 the morning it
    announced earnings, and sold it the same day at 26 1/4.
    Ultimate result: I made a handsome profit switching from
    ODP to SPLS. Now, thank the Lord, I'm out of BOTH of
    these dogs. I believed in ODP--I really did. But it let
    me down. It took my money. And SHORTY_L_SMITH
    lambasted me for jumping ship and told me how much of a
    mistake I had made going from a stock with such a "low"
    PE to SPLS which has a much higher PE. Well, I made
    THOUSANDS in the end by making the switch. And where is ODP
    now? Even lower than where I sold it. What an absolute
    DOG. Sorry, folks, but I'm off to greener pastures.
    Check the ADCT board...that's my current stock du
    jour.

    Sincerely,

    YA_GOTTA_BELIEVE_IN_ME (Because if you can't believe in ME, who CAN you
    believe in?)

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • ODP is perceived as a bad company because the
      stock has dropped. All three office products companies
      met their earnings expectations last quarter. None of
      them exceeded their expectations. SPLS seemed to be
      the least hurt in the downgrading of the sector by
      analysts. Of course, ODP got downgraded worse than the
      others. OMX and SPLS received two and ODP
      three.

      ODP and SPLS are still both very strong companies.
      For ODP it is critical for them to show accelerated
      SSS growth by the fourth quarter. They must prove to
      investors that they are worthy to invest. The stock seems
      to be priced for failure right now, and I do not
      seeing it drop too far from here. OMX seen SSS drop 1%
      (up 1% if you pretend they don't sell computers) and
      they are priced at around 9x earnings. ODP saw SSS
      grow at 6% (4% in the US) and is priced at 15 � times
      earnings. SPLS saw SSS grow at 9% and is priced at 38 times
      earnings.

      If ODP delivers the goods in the fourth quarter, you
      should see a nice pop. If not, I do not see it dropping
      much more. 15 � times earnings is not bad for a
      company with 6% SSS growth.

      • 1 Reply to Redneck_Dan
      • of the last two days (given the general markets
        performance) suggests ODP hasn't seen the bottom yet. I'm
        looking to get in, but only once ODP starts acting like a
        stock ready to run, not tank. Repeat, another 10% drop
        is possible. If your in for the long term it
        shouldn't be a problem...and it's even better if you've got
        the cash to take advantage of the lower price. Just
        MO...good luck longs.

    • Yer sellin' ODP was just an excuse to call ya a dumb bastid cause that's what ya is! Braggin' like ya always comes out on top! Nobuddy ever loses money on these boards! It's downright amazin'!

      • 2 Replies to SHORTY_L_SMITH
      • ya_gotta_believe_in_me ya_gotta_believe_in_me Aug 22, 1999 11:37 AM Flag

        ...I ultimately came out with a profit of $7800
        when this fiasco was all over. I recouped my ODP loss
        completely, then made some money. That's how this game is
        played. You may not like my methodology, but whatever
        makes money for me--I'll do whatever it takes. And if
        dumping this piece of crap and picking up its competitor
        was the only way of making my money back, then that's
        what I had to do. I don't think EITHER ODP or SPLS is
        worth owning right now...they're BOTH dogs. But I'm
        thankful SPLS was volatile enough to get my money back.
        Now I'm riding the wave of ADC Telecommunications
        back up to 47 after a bunch of "dumb bastids" sold it
        off the morning it reported excellent earnings and
        beat the street by 3 cents. I don't intend to EVER be
        one of those dumb bastids!!!! I just like taking
        advantage of their
        stupidity.

        Sincerely,

        YA_GOTTA_BELIEVE_IN_ME (Because if you can't believe in ME, who CAN you
        believe in?)

        P.S. OFFICE DEPOT is STILL $4 below
        where I had originally purchased it! Pathetic! You
        think I'm going to wait around until this company gets
        its act together? DREAM ON!! Hee hee.

      • 2 months ago...at 21 7/8

        bought another
        100 shares a month ago at 19 3/4.

        going to buy
        another 100 shares first of next month
        (sept.)

        will ride this up during the 4th
        quarter!!!!!!

        will recoup my losses immediately...maybe break even
        at 21 7/8,
        but probably be closer to higher 20's
        around Dec. or 1st quarter, 2000.
        should still turn a
        pretty good profit for about 6 months.

        IMHO

 
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