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Odyssey Marine Exploration Inc. Message Board

  • wilhelm.tell067 Aug 22, 2013 11:23 AM Flag

    Oceania not worth billions IMHO

    they sold 15millions Oceania in feb 2013 at 1$ shares to MAKO, a few months they later they sold another 8 millions shares at 1,25$ to MAKO but it's my understanding that they were part of a 2,5$ per share deal.
    So they were executed earlier, probably on demand of OMEX to have sufficient working capital to do Gairsoppa deal.
    That's a 50% reduction of original planned strike price.If you ask something yourself to change than you have to renegotiate price.Ok at that time it was smart to do.
    If they would be sitting on something that was billions worth than that transaction would never be done at a lower price.Nevertheless, it could be worth several hundred millions dollars in total, maybe half a billion?

    I am more realistic, at 2,5$ per share (the remaining option to be executed by MAKO for oceania shares).It's a big risk also for MAKO so they expect to fetch a multiple of their original investment.

    Maybe the real value of oceania lies closer to 5 a 10$ per share, which would mean 250 to 500 million $ for OMEX remaining stake.
    Which would mean a multipe of todays stockprice of OMEX.Which would also mean that OMEX has several 100's of millions of dollars to buy back stock, new vessels and several projects at the same time.
    Which would also mean that that shortconstruction would be dissapear for good, so less manipulation.

    BUT BILLIONS, naaah, than OMEX would not have sold those shares at 1,25$.
    I would be very happy to see hundreds of millions on oceania project, cause than this company is totally different and price would be a triple of todays.

    They found already with one target more than double of todays marketcap, namely black swan.So they can do it again.

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    • The underlying deposit is expected to be worth multi-billions, but that is gross. You have the cost of mining plus the time value of the return to consider. I would be surprised if OMEX 50% stake is worth less than $500MM once all is dosclosed, which is a triple from today's prices at a minimum.

      You hit the nail on the head with the buyback. Expect some of the proceeds to be used to take out the "short" position and allow the shares to trade freely.

      It is all good. But of course they must first disclose some hard numbers.

      I believe it is far sooner than most believe. DD should have put a final stamp on it before results are released with the technical report.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to cliffbanger86
      • A vertically integrated company like MOS ( which takes phosphates and turns out fertilizer at multiples of the phosphate price) would be an ideal candidate to buy them. Junior miners are valued-more or less- at 2x-5x of their certified reserves. FWIW, I don't think a major investment bank would take them on if Odyssey's stake is less than $500MM, IMHO.
        All to be seen of course; I have a feeling we will find out more soon.

        Sentiment: Buy

    • No, Mako did not exercise the options. OMEX sold more of their stake to Mako investors. The initial value of Oceanica at $100MM was before proving out a greater resource (which I am assuming the Dorado has been doing) and BEFORE a major pivot point of official mineral assessment by an internationally recognized party. Once they get N43-101 compliant resource (or the equivalent there of), the valuation will skyrocket. It's the difference between claiming you have a huge find, and ACTUALLY OFFICIALLY having one: big difference. In addition, if and when they get an environmental license (not guaranteed) then the valuation will jump by a factor as well. SO....Odyssey needed more cash immediately than they though, so they unfortunately had to monetize more of their crown jewel sooner: that is not a reflection of the potential of Oceanica, but more of Odyssey's cash needs. There are a few milestones they have to get over, but the valuation will jump my many multiples when they do.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 2 Replies to jmayr1969
      • wilhelm.tell067 Aug 22, 2013 12:15 PM Flag

        basically you have it al wrong , everyone can read it in PR of latest transaction , read the PR where it states OMEX nets 8,8 million $.

      • wilhelm.tell067 Aug 22, 2013 12:12 PM Flag

        ok jmayr, so 10million shares were sold at 1$, 5 million shares were sold at 1$.

        So the original deal with MAKO was 15million shares at 1$. EVERY SHARE that MAKO bought , gave them the right to purchase another share at 2,5$ before end of dec 2013.So its a kind of warrant attached to every share of the 15million shares bought in february at 1$ dollar a piece.

        The 8 million shares transaction is already a result of execution of 8 million warrants (total is 15million warrant , same amount as the 15million shares purchased at 1$ in Febr 2012)
        Therefore the 8 million shares at 1,25$ is a 50% discount of the orginal warrant strike price at 2,5$.

        Now there remains 7 million (15million minus 8 million already executed) .
        So the reduction of 50% on original 2,5$ is because there are not sitting on BILLIONS but rather hundreds of millions.

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