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Odyssey Marine Exploration Inc. Message Board

  • finster63 finster63 Nov 6, 2013 7:59 AM Flag

    Small loss in Q3 followed by big profit in q4

    CFO stated a small loss in q3 (under $1 mm) when company will take entire 9.2 mm of project costs followed by large profit in q 4.

    It's lining up.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • I gave it a listen last night, FWIW my take.

      First and foremost it was an energetic and effective counterpunch to the limburger sleaze of the Meson report . Well Done!

      a few random points (as best I heard - welcome any correction)

      To my view, an excellent new approach in the commodity salvage arena. Will take time to figure all the logistics...glad they are working on more cost effective multiyear methods. Did I understand correctly that the first job is tentatively scheduled for the back half of 2014? A possible delay of those plans, given the complexities, would neither be unforgiveable or unusual.

      GREAT to hear their small number of presently outstanding convertibles do have a floor. Floorless ones can be incredibly toxic in certain situations (like heavy duty bear raids). Nice short decision of board to make some payments with cash on hand.

      No equity offering planned in 2014, but that of course doesn't rule out more convertible offerings. I would guess the float will continue to slowly expand for a time.

      I do not trust the big houses like JP Morgan in certain situations (like the Birmingham Alabama sewer system), but they should be excellent at helping OMEX extract value in Oceanica.

      I believe Oceanica is massive and valuable. Not sure how valuable of course. News there someday could prove an enormous plus. The first commodity salvage is aways off though, so for the stock to perform well in the short run news on various fronts once again will have to prove potent frontrunner so actual revenues in the wintertime. and beyond.

      "Soon" might be anywhere from June to on the moon. I do not mean that in a disparaging way...looks to me like 2014 is primarily all about laying a solid foundation to their new approach and that's a complicated and possibly time consuming matter.

      Me after 30 days (wash sale rules) I'll look for another entry point For the sake of patient longs I hope the price goes so silly high I won't be able to find one. Goode Luck!

      • 2 Replies to treehousetimes
      • Sometimes, unless you need the write off now, when the price gets low enough you should just ignore the wash sale rule and get back in. That is no different than not selling in the first place and continuing to accumulate on the big dips. You won't care about the wash sale rule if the price goes silly high.

      • Did I hear correctly that they were already paying cash for the payments before the hit piece? That would indicate they considered the shares undervalued even in the low to mid threes.

        They have effectively preannounced the profit for the 4th quarter that hasn't even ended yet. That helps with the disappointment that the 3rd quarter will not be profitable. It would be nice if they could give us guidance on a per share basis for the 4th quarter when they announce the 3rd quarter results.

        It was good to hear that they won't have to hire the SBW any more to perform the deep ocean lifts. It seems as though they characterized that as more important in terms of the availability of the ship than for cost savings. Did they mention how much the cost savings was? We know the SBW costs about 3 million per month. Is the OE closer to 1 million per month to operate? That should significantly improve profitability on future recoveries.

        Because the commodity wreck will not be started until the second half of next year (June perhaps?), the next drivers of share price will be the 3rd quarter report next week; the assay results that could come any time, but probably not too soon; the option exercise on Oceanica by December 31st; and the 4th quarter report that will probably be available mid March.

    • Let's just hope that some don't misunderstand that Q3 when it comes out. If they missed that statement on the conference call the shareprice could dip once again. Unfortunately, some have knee-jerk reactions.

    • Yearly loss in 2013, in 2012, in 2011, in 2010, in 2009, in 2008... Never one year with a profit, ever.

0.38+0.02(+6.59%)Oct 2 4:00 PMEDT