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AVANIR PHARMACEUTICL (AVN-R) Message Board

  • smv_87110 smv_87110 Dec 28, 2001 7:49 PM Flag

    New Years Resolutions

    I hereby resolve that in the new year I will complete my 25 percent divestiture out of AVN, 7.5 percent complete, 17.5 percent to go. Long awaited, and much anticipated news, which confirmed what we already knew, has been released recently, and the market has barely lifted a brow our way. I will seriously reevaluate my overall position in AVN over the new year with final decision as to my faith in AVN by this time next year.

    I further resolve to spend one hour or less a week reading this thread instead of my one plus hours a day. I originally found this board when AVN was de-listed to the OTC.BB with narrowly a peep from AVN management, and it was filled with very useful, and informative posts. Now it is nothing more than a tremendous waste of time. Instead of utilizing the ignore feature I will utilize the recognition feature. That is I will read only those posters who through their posts I have come to know, and respect.

    Most importantly I resolve to separate AVN's potential from its performance over the coming year. What good is it having a Ferrari in the garage if you never get to drive it? And having this Ferrari precludes you from any other form of transportation other than public. I invested in AVN in January of 97, and have only been able to enjoy any profits made on this investment by having averaged down. I've done everything that I feel comfortable doing with this investment to see a return. Now, it is up to the management of AVN.

    No bashing, and most importantly no more rose colored glasses. As I have said here before I originally invested in LDAKA with a five to ten-year time horizon, and this January it will have been five years, and I am deeply disappointed with the overall performance, external those that I myself have executed.

    Good luck, and Happy New Year to the shareholders of AVN.

    Steve

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    • the_beauteous_patrice_saxon the_beauteous_patrice_saxon Dec 30, 2001 1:20 PM Flag

      sorry, we are all on vacation until further notice.

      tom's hands are on my butt, not in it.

    • Well then pull tom's hand out of your butt and get back to work.

    • the_beauteous_patrice_saxon the_beauteous_patrice_saxon Dec 30, 2001 1:40 AM Flag

      I'm not a Yak puppet. I'm a tom puppet.

    • tom_costello_live_from_alcatrazz tom_costello_live_from_alcatrazz Dec 29, 2001 5:21 PM Flag

      unfortunately, the judge didn't think so.

    • Hello smv_87110,
      Do you have a built-in alarm that warns you that you are in danger of getting rich? Why would you abandon the goose that is about to lay the golden egg? You say that your original time horizon was five to ten years. The fundamentals of AVN are better than ever. AVN just received client validation of its MAB technology. If your finances allow it, why not just keep AVN another couple of years and let it grow? What you are saying just does not sound logical.

      Best Regards,

      Simon

      PS:I think the fundamentals of AVN are constantly improving. I think I will hit a home run with this investment if I keep it another three to five years. AVN is 85% of my portfolio (a highly concentrated position). Even if I don't purchase any more shares, I think it will get much closer to 100% by the time I start selling.

      • 1 Reply to simonig
      • Simonig, no I do not have an alarm that goes off every time I reach the verge of success. Not on investing, and not on anything in life. Do you ever watch the History Channel? Are you familiar with the show blunders in history?

        When Yak did not sell the worldwide rights for Docosonal for one plus billion dollars that was a blunder. AVN would have been capitalized to the tune of over $900 million, and Xenerex could have been capitalized to the tune of $250 million. After the IPO Xenerex could of had a cash position of $450 million with a per share cash value of $37.50 per share, based on 12 million shares outstanding. AVN could of had a per share cash value of $15.78 per share, for a total of $53.28 per share cash value. Both entities could have proceeded full steam ahead with their individual projects. AVN with Neurodex for all indications, and Xenerex with their own proprietary targets, collaboration deals would just have been a side business.

        Another blunder looming on the horizon. If Yak does not spinoff Xenerex this year and return shareholder value then not only does he need to be replaced, he needs to be fired. It's too late for Docosonal he's already screwed the pooch on that one, another major blunder is simply inexcusable. Xenerex has been validated by companies that hold their collaboration partners to a higher standard. After all they can only afford to move forward with those projects with the most promising potential of a positive outcome. When major pharma hits big deal. XENEREX HAS BEEN VALIDATED!

        Like it or not shareholder value is the other side of the coin in any public company. In my five years of being invested in AVN I alone have returned shareholder value back to myself. Yak has simply minded the store. When I put up a sizable amount of my time, money, or energy into anything, that means I truly believe in its potential. When I finish reducing my position in AVN down to 75 percent, my remaining portfolio in AVN will be free, and clear as a direct result of my investing actions. But when I am no longer willing to risk time, money, and energy into something that means I have very serious doubts, but most importantly it is time to reevaluate.

        Small companies that think small, act small, stay small.

        Steve

    • Steve, you seem like a disiplined investor, which I have trouble being. I can't seem to shake the gut feeling, that if I sell, AVN will skyrocket on all kinds of great news. If AVN does not raise above a stable $7 by next December, I too may need to reallocate by portfolio, especially if the economy comes back and lots of other stocks to buy. Good luck with your decisions and have a Happy New Year.

    • smv,

      Regretfully, I agree with your resolve. Over the next few months I will be looking to sell off about 1/3 of what I now have in AVN. I have too much of my total portfolio in AVN (About 80%). My cost basis for my core holding of AVN (about 2/3 of what I now have) is low enough to hang in there longer. Unfortunately, AVN has a lot of potential but too little cash to move their pipeline aggressively. Perhaps a good long term hold (3 to 5 more years), but I expect it to be basically dead money during that period. Mouse deals look great, but do not add much in the way of profit (basically pay for themselves). U.S. and Canada Abreva sales probably represent 50% of the world market. Based on what we have seen for Abreva revenue, that is not a hell of lot of money for a pipeline. Neurodex FDA approval will move the stock price up. Till then it looks like a $4 to $6 stock. Each "deal" pushing it closer to $6, then sliding back down to near $4 until the next deal. Maybe two or three deals per year. I suppose one could swing trade it on the deal announcements.


      Steve

      P.S. Are you going to change your moniker to Capt'n_smv :>)

    • Well Steve

      Good luck with your plan. Sounds like a very reasonable plan.

      Other than market conditions, if AVN isn't around $10 this time next year we do have a problem.

      As you know nothing is easy with this investment.

      As far as the time spent on this board. Do like I do if you can. I'm on duty right now. Getting paid to surf. City dosen't mind, as long as we don't go to inappropriate sites.


      Good Luck & Happy New Year
      Engineer Ride

    • Hi Steve, I see nothing wrong with your resolutions. You've been with it for 5 years. Lots of disappointments with a stock never over $10.00@. With last PR's, it does look like things are starting to come together for AVN/Xenerex, but seems like forever to start selling Abreva overseas? However, patents are good until 2016, and AVN working on other uses for docosanol also. Not trying to talk you out of selling any, or part of your investment. Might give it until AGM to see what happens next 2-3 months? You've held on this long, what will 3 months mean? This is my first complete year(next month) holding AVN. I've bought 6 times, still holding all, and talked about 10 others into investing in AVN. Not keen about AMEX, as many investors won't buy anything on AMEX. I think AMEX factor is major reason for low interest and price. Looking for better things for AVN/Xenerex in 2002. I still believe AVN is a strong buy. JMO.

 

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