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AVANIR PHARMACEUTICL (AVN-R) Message Board

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  • simonig simonig Mar 19, 2002 5:39 PM Flag

    I think everything is going quite well

    Hello skip_2myloo,
    I apologize for not getting back to you sooner. I took my 7 year old son to the emergency room 5am Monday morning and they took out his appendix on the same day at 5pm. We spent the night in the hospital and came home about two hours ago. He is doing very well now but is in a little pain.

    I did attend the AVN ASM meeting. Yak took his time to explain AVN's strategy and went over the current products in the pipeline. In my post #199716 (reprinted below) I summed up AVN's strategy as I understood it. IMHO AVN is a good long term bet whose stock price will fluctuate based on what the stock market values most at any particular time. Currently the market is valuing current and near term earnings prospects most. However there will come a time again when the market will value future potential more highly and give AVN a boost. Overall I had a good impression from the ASM. I think Yak is a heavyweight and knows what he is doing. His goal IMHO is to build good, long term value for the shareholders and maximize the return on AVN's technology.

    My Post #199716 follows:

    I agree that Yak has a great business plan which will build value for the shareholders. He has said often that the further you take a drug candidate into clinical trials, the more valuable the candidate. IMCL's billion dollar deal with BMY is just one example of this. Yak has also mentioned often that the big drug companies must keep adding to their pipelines to maintain a healthy growth rate. According to Yak, the big drug companies have little choice other than buying into deals with the smaller biotechs to keep their drug pipelines full. Yak is thus concentrating AVN's efforts on getting "Big Ticket" drug candidates from the pre-clinical stage to the clinical stage and as far along the clinical trials stages as possible before he shops for a big collaboration deal with a large pharmaceutical company. That would bring lots of money into the company and as a result of the deal, the large company would pay for the rest of the development for the drug candidate. Yak has several big-ticket items in AVN's pipeline each of which address a multi-billion dollar market. These include Neurodex, the IGE down regulator, and the MIF anti-inflammatory candidate. IMHO, Yak's business plan is sound and will be able to take advantage of the Large pharmaceutical companies' needs to fill their pipelines using the good science AVN has and is continuing to develop. He also has a balanced approach in his business plan in that there is no one technology or drug which due to some unforseen circumstance/failure could sink AVN. The stock market today is demanding to see increasing revenues and income from companies to increase stock prices. AVN's model does not fit that picture very well. If Yak were to concentrate on near term revenue/income, he would not be able to maximize the value to AVN of the very valuable drug candidates he would be "giving away" in a large pharma deal at a very early stage in the development. Yak, I believe, is confident that he could make a much better deal when the drug candidate is further along in the development stage. I conclude that Yak is building value and trying to maximize that value for AVN's shareholders. Lets just relax and watch the master at work with a little understanding of his business plan.
    I am comfortable with this investment. My average price is $5.20 and it is the biggest position in my portfolio. Market circumstances have brought the price down and provided for others to take advantage of a great opportunity IMHO. IMHO this is a good long term bet!

    Best Regards,

    Simon

 

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