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American Overseas Group Limited Message Board

  • patrickadriscoll patrickadriscoll Jun 14, 2010 1:43 PM Flag

    Am I missing something here?

    Why would anyone sell?

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    • hey patrick,

      You seem like you may understand RAMR well.

      I was wondering if you (any other RAMR experts please chime in) could tell me what you feel the upside is, and the downside - maybe some risks...and what to look for positively.

      I know you dont know me from a hole in the head, and I understand if you dont have the time to repsond, so no bigee if you dont.

      I bought this as a bvalue play a while back around .35 cents...pretty small position. Havent really looked at it much since, and it seems kinda complicated to understand fully.

      Anyway, just trying to figure how much upside potential there is....or if I should just sell and move on.

      best.

      • 2 Replies to fabulouspoodle
      • I've studied this company thoroughly for over a year.

        Firstly, bankruptcy is not a meaningful possibility, so put that out of your mind. Management owns at least 70%, having added to their positions continuously over the past year. One could not have a better indication of future value.

        The company is in the process of healing the balance sheet. As with any severe injury, it's taking a long time. Resolution of FGIC ceded insurance is likely to accelerate the process, but there is not enough published information to make an accurate projection of the benefit.

        The wind is at RAM's back in that all the economic conditions that affect their liability are improving. But without an exogenous event, such as resolution of all ceded insurance from FGIC, the process could easily require two to four years. When sufficient liabilities are resolved, I expect RAM to encourage the stock price to rise to at least $5 per share, at which time additional equity will be raised. It will then become active in the insurance industry once more, except it will not likely participate in financial insurance any longer. Most likely it will offer reinsurance for medical and other consumer related lines.

        Day to day stock transactions are difficult to fathom. This is probably because it is controlled by market makers on the Bermuda exchange, and there may be considerable participation by management and other large holders related to management.

      • That is a very good question regarding upside. Only time will tell, to my understanding the industry has been crushed thus the market does not really exist for M/insurance or M/Reinsurance there are very few players who are writing polocies eg.Wilbur Ross AGO. That being said RAM is in runoff and not writing any new policies so I feel this tellls the market that RAM is not a operating Co. Keep in mind that the stock markettrades on the future and what is the future of RAM? Well all we know is what MGT tells us through AP and Co news. I am not going to go into valuation but in my opinion a monitary investment in this Co has more potential for upside. Look at Co earnings, commutions, remaining risk, insiders. Compare to other investments and make your own call. I spend countless hours researching co's on my own time and believe RAM is worth more than what the current price is trading for today. Do your own due diligence on this as there is risk to any investment (EG 2007) in mortgages.

 
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