of brokerage firms driving retail buyers in high
while their major customers exit. Same thing with the
Internet stocks which have flattened last six
The key is to get ahead of the institutions and not
behind them. If you are good enough to find value and
hold you will prosper. But if you follow the pack you
will own hyped gems with limited upside.
is a much better investment than INFY... and the
word is starting to get out. When you add 1.9 million
shorts (per Yahoo), you have th epotential for very
at $218, I predicted back when INFY was under
$100 that I would think about shorting INFY if it went
INFYs recent peak was $235, based on
my technical analysis INFY should at least pull all
the way back to $160 - $180.
Prior to INFY
going above $200 I was long, as a matter off fact I
always called for INFY to go ABOVE $200, so don't come
around and try to say I'm losing my ass on INFY shorts
because I used to be an INFY bull....now I'm an INFY bear
and PROUD of it.
You seem to know what you are
doing and it is your money. Who am I to say anything ?.
I wish you good luck.
I never shorted stocks and
I am not comfortable in playing with derivatives,
shorts etc. I will do some basic analysis on stocks
(some times I could go wrong) and I will buy the stocks
and hold them for atleast one year and then
re-evaluate my position.
Do you subscribe to any
sites? or buy research reports ? If so , who do you
think is better research provider ?. Any Ideas
Recently(3 months back) I bought SEBL @ 34. I am holding
that stock. What is your analysis on SEBL ? What do
you think of SEBL in the next two years
BTW, I plan to hold my INFY shares for the next
GO INFY ...
$4000 - $7000 in the
next 10 years.
1. I am surprised that you shd have thought that
I was abusive to you personally. I didnt think I
was. No offense meant at all.
2. I think that
this stock is ridiculously priced. Hindu quoted me and
Quant in their report and referred to the broader
sentiment re: stock valuations.
3. I should expect
that you wd have raised your eyebrows that even after
the split announcement, unlike other recent stocks,
INFY is falling. I suspect this is so because more
shares mean more trading and MMs and other parties will
have lesser breadth to do their manipulations.
4. INFY has to fall to $100 soon. Even at that price
it is ridiculously overvalued but I would exit my
short position thereabouts.
5. Be warned all of
you retail investors - the reason the stock is being
made affordable is because they can suck more small
investors into the stock; exit with profits while the
smaller investors see their money disappear.
You all have made enough money on this one. Get out
NOW. This is the best time to lock in your past
Basically you were trying to say
that Quantagal was right in saying that Andersen
Consulting has market value between 6 - 14 B. My argument is
Andersen has sales of 8.3 B and is growing 25 percent per
year. AC has net profit margin of 15-20 percent and it
is privatley held company. Show one company that has
got brand name of AC, growing 25 percent and valued
at .75 - 1.4 times sales. If AC were to be valued ,
it will be atleast 6 times their sales , which will
put them at 50B.
Now coming to INFY's valuation.I
hold infy shares from 1993 IPO in India. I used work
at INFY from 1988 and I left them around 1992. I
still hold a lot shares of INFY in India. Let me tell
you some thing here. INFY has been a public company
since 1993 and they have been following GAAP(which is
Amercan Standard Accounting procedure) accounting
procedures since 1993 even though they are not required to
do so Indian stock market regulations. They are used
declare results on a quarterly basis even though they are
not required to do it. If you look at their quarterly
reports since 1993 , the reports will tell you the story
of the company. They have been doubling revenues
since 1993 on a year to year basis. They are over
valued if you just look at the numbers. The real
difference between INFY and other guys like MAST,SYNT,ITIG
etc is that these guys are known to be pure body
shops. Not that INFY does not do the body shopping but
it is not their core business. It is easy to get
revenues grow by doing pure body shooping. INFY's net
profit is almost as close as MSFT's. I would not Buy
INFY at these levels but I would not sell either. I
have complete faith in the management and I am sure
they will do well in the long run. On valuation basis
they may be over valued based on current sales but
there are a lot of companies that over valued on the
pure fundamental numbers basis. For Example Yahoo has
only sales of 500Mil and valued at 60 B more than the
valuation of GM. BRCM has sales of 450 Mil and is valued at
20 B. Of course they are in different business and
they are in media, semiconductor business. I dont know
how one can rationailse the valuation of a lot of the
companies SCMR, JNPR etc . In my opinion , Fundamentals are
only one of the several criteria that determines the
stock price, based on what I have seen so far. You guys
may differ. You guys may think that INFY is in a no
brainer(services) business, any body can copy their business and
they should not valued at where they are right now. I
think it may be a positive thing for them because if it
is so easy , why could not any body else do the
same. Why could not some body build a business like
INFY ?(they have not a missed a quarter since their
IPO). I leave the valuation to market. Let them figure
it out but I would not sell my shares. I will hold
them for the next 3-4 years for sure and evaluate from
ITIG - I dont much about these
guys except that one of the co - founder used work
with me in 1992-1993 . We both were working for the
same company. I wish him good luck but I would not buy
ITIG's shares at the current price and I would not short
$4000 - $7000 in the next 10 years.