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Molycorp, Inc. Message Board

  • informedstockman informedstockman Jan 31, 2013 7:44 PM Flag

    Buyout around the corner - any guesses?

    My guess is Nissan shortly after earnings at 17.50 per share. There are too many indicators for this not to happen. How could anyone short this stock knowing they could wake up one morning with a 100% loss of their position during a closed market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • "How could anyone short this stock knowing they could wake up one morning with a 100% loss of their position during a closed market?"

      Great question and one I grappled with while being "caught short" on Friday. The answer, however, is pretty easy: daytrading. MCP has more down days than it does up days (the last 2.5 years running). If you can keep tight manual stops --and honor them (something I'm not so good at)-- and you get out by the end of each day, there is nothing to fear about premarket or aftermarket news.

      Shorting MCP has been very rewarding for a lot of folks for a long time. And, I think I can speak from experience: excluding prior swing trade gains in 2011, I lost $125K with my "buy and hope" strategy with Molycorp. I could buy two brand new BMW X5s for CASH with that amount of money -- or buy a condo in many markets today for cold, hard cash. Or go on four or five First Class world cruises for a month each. There is absolutely nothing any pumpers on this board or anywhere else can say, argue, or reason to persuade me that buy-and-hope will one day be rewarding. Those who say so are probably bagholders who are at a large loss and hoping for the tide to turn.

      TAman87 on StockTwits has been consistently calling for the teens or below ten since MCP was in the 60s. And, I can remember saying to my wife, when we had bought in at $48, then $42, then $36, "What's the worse that can happen, Honey? It's not like it's going to go to eight bucks!" Indeed, I never thought I'd see the day when this stock would go to eight dollars. And yet, here we are today, and here you pumpers are railing about how this dysfunctional company is going to be profitable. Honestly, I think that 80¢ is far more likely than $80.

      I don't purport to be a fortune-teller, but my hunch is that eventually, without a buyout or bailout, this incarnation of Molycorp will eventually go belly up and close the mine as happened before in 2002. I'm not trying to convince anyone here to sell or cover. It's your money; do what you want.

 
MCP
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