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Molycorp, Inc. Message Board

  • jeff_gorab jeff_gorab Apr 17, 2013 1:00 PM Flag

    the next smack down ....in less than 45 days

    Since MCP mgmt is scared to death of the next Qtrly disaster report, they have not announced what day and time that will be, the date on Yahoo Finance as we know is only a guess.

    Once the Qtrly DISASTER rpt is public the market will smack down MCP stock by at least 10% and quite possibly more than that. Chances are excellent the stock will break below $ 4. Mr Market will see the CASH BURN GUSHING RED INK and they will smell blood and more dilution..... it's going to be very very ugly ....just give it time.

    As far as today's debacle .....we should easily see trades below $ 4.67 before todays 4 pm ET close.

    Oh well -- the longs were warned !

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • Oh Jeff gonad I am so scared I will sell all my shares first thing tomorrow , happy now , you must be a SA employee

    • LOL. You take the common practice of announcing the earnings date on a quarterly basis as a negative. Wow, just short the whole market.

      The Q1 numbers will be awful. Probably sales volume down again (boat holiday again). Maybe 3000 tons at $25 per kg average. Costs above $40. That is an easy $45 million operational loss. Then inventory mark-to-market will probably lead to another loss. What, maybe $0.5 per share loss? I'm hoping they somehow can hold it to under an $80 million loss, or about $0.43 per share. Unlikely though.

      I don't think the numbers will lead to dilution. They are completely expected. Molycorp should lose close to $200 million operationally in Q1 and Q2, see losses slow in Q3, and hopefully turn the corner in Q4.

      The critical thing to look for in the Q1 report and conference call is progress on cost containment. Hopefully they will have good news on some of the future cost reductions getting closer.

      • 1 Reply to votingmachine
      • votingmachiine...if memory serves, your prediction on the last quarterly release were fairly close. Are you suggesting that MCP will generate only $60 million in revenue for Q1? Also, at at $.43 loss, that would be far worse than the average $.27 loss estimated by analysts. Do you think your projected loss is baked in the current price of $5 or so? Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

    • Looks like the $ 4.67 post will have to wait for another day in the near future. Oh well

      the stock has rebounded slightly from the new record low of $ 4.70 ...but not for long !

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Jeff..I have to admit you have been 100% correct on MCP over the past several months and my judgement was flawed about MCP. I have a few questions for you:

      1. Are you a retail trader or do you represent a hedge/institutional fund? Or, are you an active analyst-trader representing a research firm?
      2. For the most part, your perspective on ree has been correct. On what basis are you making comments on MCP's management and your views on their financial performance? I really can't see MCP going BK, so how are you coming to that perspective?
      3. Do you short trade MCP everyday or are you holding a continued short position? The reason I ask is there are no shares available to short at Schwab. Given your conviction to that MCP will eventually be de-listed, wouldn't it make sense to short here? How can I get shares to short?

      Your detailed response to my questions would be appreciated greatly. I want to recap some portion of my losses on MCP and do not believe going long is the best way to do so.

      • 1 Reply to mcpfan01
      • mcpfan01
        I am a retail investor ( not trader ), i rarely make more than 1 or 2 changes in my portfolio in a average business week.
        As far as bankruptcy goes ...please go and read Norm Thomas's recent post ....he states clearly what MCP is facing and it is NOT pretty !
        As far as available "short" shares .... if your broker does not have any shares to short ...you can sometimes call them and ask if they could possibly "locate" newly available shares to short if that is what you intend to do .... of course "timing" can be a big factor as to when they do or do not get back to you.
        Lastly, it does make sense to short here as we await the upcoming disaster report.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

 
MCP
2.13+0.17(+8.67%)Jul 11 4:03 PMEDT

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