JMO, but I think the short side is larger than ever. The higher price and higher volume seem likely to be the result of aggressive shorts doubling-down on their position. Obviously interest in the stock is up since the Q1 report showed some good progress.
I just don't think that the short interest is covering. I think the short interest is going to stay large for months. I don't expect any squeeze but the gradual covering will drive prices higher.
I've tried to calculate the exact current short interest using FINRA data, but that data seems incomplete. I think short interest is higher now than it was pre-earnings. If anyone knows the count, by all means post the facts.
The following are possible stock movers prior to fall:
- Another earnings/revenue beat
- Completion of Phase 1
- Update on production costs post-Phase 1
- Slashing of Neo production costs after working through rare earths purchased during spike
- Results from pilot studies for Sorbx (municipal and industrial)
- Sorbx sales
- Close of SEC investigation
- Completion of Chlor Alkali facility
- Successful ramp up of Chlor Alkali facility
- Report on production costs after Chlor Alkali
- New generation of magnets (little or zero HREEs) gaining traction
- Stable or rising rare earths pricing
- Update on Lynas's tight rope walk (scrutiinzed/hated company with no toxic waste plan)
- [something I haven't thought of]