1. mcp will never see sustainable prices above 10.00 again, so most will never recover lost monies again, unless they adopt short and put strategies.
2. the majority of rare earth juniors now trade in the pink sheet zone and will never see sustainable prices above 1.00 again, so you best exit asap before you blow all your $$$$$
3. there is no market history of stocks losing 90%-95% of market value, then spinning on a dime and revisiting 52 week or all time highs. It never happens. On the very few occasions that devastated stocks resume sustainable bull uptrends, it typically takes at least 10 years of BASING and CONSOLIDATION for those stocks to resume sustainable bullish uptrends. It can NOT occur in any kind of speedy manner.
4. MOST June rare earth call options stand to be wiped out next Friday, the next expiration date, while most of the rare earth calls will be wiped out into the close of the year as rare earths continue to make all time lows, again and again. There is only one successful effectively risk free strategy in dealing with ALL bear market stocks, especially of the penny kind: buy shorts....buy in the money puts....write out of the money calls, even on a naked basis, given the badly wounded nature of the sector.
5. finally, where the rare earth product itself is concerned, there is NO shortage of any kind and never has been and never will occur. China contrived a phony shortage some two years ago, being the monopolist supplier they happen to be, and now they are dumping near infinite amounts of the product, happy to do so, since the rice farmers can live on 50 cents a day, and any shred of meager rare earth profits, even mere puny pennies, makes them more than happy, as they can buy all the pig testicles, chop soohee, and fortune cookies their hearts desire. LOL
"3. there is no market history of stocks losing 90%-95% of market value, then spinning on a dime and revisiting 52 week or all time highs. It never happens"
Ever hear of AMR , LCC , SIRI , UAL ????????? No one is saying a "return to all time highs" , just a bounce off the lows , and a possible 10.00+ ........ You don't know what will happen , and neither does anyone else ..... and you are right , "there is no true shortage of rare earth metals" in the world , in fact , rare earth metals are in our back yards , but they are hard to process out , and THAT is what makes them "rare" ......
On point #1: If MCP completes the stage 2 plant upgrade on time, you will see 10+ for sure within 6 months. They will become the lowest cost producer for most rees in the world.
On Point #2: True that, and that is what you want to see happen before you can tell a bottom is in near or in place. If the majority of the industry cannot survive, that means we have reached absurdly low valuation levels.
On Point #3: Let me give you some quick examples that I know of right off the bat that prove you wrong and demonstrate that stocks can double or triple within a few months to a year and not in 10 years: PCLN (8 yrs ago), FNMA, HGG, HPQ, (recently) and my favorite PIR. These are all stocks that had very heavy short interest, and the massive short cover propelled them really high levels, extremely quickly, which is the case with MCP at the moment.
On Point #4: No Comment on that, except I have to agree for the time being as things stand at the moment, though I have seen massive spikes that do the opposite, though much rarely.
On Point #5: Even the Chinese companies are in the red, most of them delisted. I don't know of a single major rare earth player that is actually profitable. Most mining operations are being suspended or stopped. Once existing inventories are liquidated prices will spike back up. That tells you that things have hit bottom. If MCP executes on schedule and delver the plant upgrades on time that would be the perfect timing for this.
If the executives at MCP perform on schedule what they have claimed in the last 2 quarterly reports, then you will recover your investment. If they do not and are forced to do another funding/dilution then you probably won't. Either way, it would take up to 6 months to see which case holds.