The following is only my opinion, and I have no non-public information.
Beginning only 4 trading days after the end of Q2, Molycorp experienced gains of 1.58%, 5.17% and 16.07%, for nearly a 25% unexplained/no news gain.
At the annual meeting on Thursday, June 25, the interim CEO Constantine promised Molycorp would provide further public guidance and information on the current state of play within "a couple of weeks". His exact words/stated timetable. It is now exactly 2 weeks later.
At this point it would appear highly likely to me that non-public information has been selectively leaked to the usual wall street suspects and one of the following is likely true:
1) Q2 fell meaningfully below market expectations, a secondary or other cash raise is being actively explored, efforts for the past 6 months to secure a credit line have failed, etc.....and the extraordinary uptick yesterday on no news is a pump scheme by the wall street types and/or the market maker (who has had to purchase millions of shares at declining prices in the absence of buyers in prior weeks/month) to dump shares at higher prices before the negative news is announced; or
2) Q2 positive surprise or other positive news...and the uptick this week is in advance of this not yet publicly available but selectively leaked positive information.
Eitherway, given Molycorp's past history, unless there truly is no news at all (unlikely in my opinion), Molycorp better darn well provide post-quarter/pre-earnings guidance and NOW/TODAY. Whether positive or negative. Otherwise, if there is any news not in line with current market expectations, and especially if that news is related to Q2 and therefore Molycorp would clearly already have that information, Molycorp will be facing a slew of newly disgruntled shareholders and potentially more lawsuits.
Constantine, you promised further updates in a couple of weeks, and it is now 14 days later. Honor your promise and release the information NOW/TODAY!
I have to question the claim you make:
"Constantine promised Molycorp would provide further public guidance and information on the current state of play within "a couple of weeks". His exact words/stated timetable."
"PROVIDE US THE UPDATES YOU PROMISED."
There does not seem to be any transcript of the Annual Meeting. Yet you claim "his exact words" ... can you point me in the direction of the transcript?
I would say that you also could be mistaken in that "a couple of weeks" could easily be the 6 weeks between the Annual Meeting and the Quarterly report. To claim that he said TWO weeks is your own interpretation.
Molycorp did indeed provide guidance last quarter ... they had a stock offering in January prior to the Q1 report. That offering had some ranges for sales volume. But it also was not that useful for predicting the Q1 results. I think there will be no guidance prior to earnings. I am unable to find the promise that you attribute to the CEO, but would certainly like to read it.
I attended the annual meeting. It is exactly what he said. At one point he said in the next couple of weeks. Later he said within the next couple of weeks. Couple of weeks = 2 weeks. I am sorry there is no transcript for those unable to attend. Molycorp did video tape the meeting. Ask them to release his full remarks.
In addition to ethical and moral obligations, there exists volumes of case law about companies that have material/meaningful information, whether positive or negative, that is not in line with prior guidance/comments/market expectations/estimates, which make clear the consequences of not providing such information timely to the public.
25% gains this week, including a 16%+ one day spike, on no public news is a clear indication to me that such information exists and is known to a select few, most likely the usual wall street suspects, who are either buying on coming news before such positive news is announced to the rest of us, or pumping and dumping on negative news before such negative news is announced to the rest of us.
If any such information exists, Molycorp must announce it IMMEDIATELY. Otherwise, Molycorp and Constantine will face real consequences.
Regardless, it has now been 14 days since the annual meeting. PROVIDE US THE UPDATES YOU PROMISED. I have been waiting patiently for exactly two weeks. It has been 13 hours and 20 1/2 hours since you promised in your remarks to make public disclosures on the current state of play.
Such updates must also include any positive and/or negative post-Q2/pre-earnings news that the Wall Street types are likely currently trading on while the rest of us remain in the dark.
Which is it? Pump and dump before negative news. Or wall street perps are unjustly enriching themselves on positive information that Molycorp has leaked to only a select few?
All in my humble opinion.