Let's take a look at the facts about Pulse's case sales
Let’s take a look at the FACTS and extrapolate just a bit!! The numbers are pulled from the latest announcement and 10Q from Aug. 15, 2012 for reporting period Q2, 2012.
Month 2012 2013 Growth
April 16,000 33,000 100%+
May 26,000 52,000 100%
June 42,000 84,000 (?) 100% (?)
Total 84,000 169,000 (?) 100% (?)
June is not over yet but it seems reasonable to expect a number shown above given the number of stores they are stocking (“These listings produce case sales, on average, five to six months after listing"), growth in sales from April to May 2013, and we are coming into the SUMMER months. If they hit between 160,000-175,000 for the quarter, they would have achieved between 70%-77% of all of their 2012 sales in ONE QUARTER.
To take this one step further - If they sell 160,000 (low end) and you add in the 77,000+ cases they sold in Q1, they will have exceed the 226,000 cases they sold in all of 2012 in just the first half of 2013. Assuming the same top line revenue per case as last year, their total sales for H1, 2013 will be over $2.3M, which once again is more than all of 2012.
Depending on how you read the 1 million case threshold for annualized Cabana case sales, you could look forward or back. They projected Cabana case sales would reach the 1 million annualized sales THRESHOLD (their word) by the end of Q2, 2013. Threshold means "starting point: the point at which something begins or changes". Therefore, I believe that this is a forward projecting number. This means that Q3 will have over 250,000 cases sold and when they reach Q2 2014, their total case sales will be over 1 million. Once again, this seems reasonable given the growth (from 160-170k in Q2 to Q3), the number of stores they are currently in (14,000) and the anticipate store growth by the end of the year (20,000 stores).
Feel free to draw your own conclusion but this seems like good news to me!
While my post was primarily focused on showing the FACTS on the Cabana case sales, which outstanding when you consider they could be greater in H1 2013 than all of last year, let us not forget we will be able to ADD the Pulse case sales on top of the numbers above.
The first run of the Pulse beverage, was likely very small - proof of concept - so there will not be much in the way of sales. They announced this production run in February. In fact their 10K, reports 425 cases of product sold. I would be surprised if they produced much more than that since it would be a risky to do so if they ran into taste or bottling problem.
But in their May 15, 2013 press release, Pulse indicated that they completed their second run. In an interview with Tobin Smith last August, we learned that one truck can carry 1720 cases of product. Two thirds of the 2nd production run went to two distributitors - the one in Ohio/Kentucky and one in Southern California. How much product is produced in one production run and how much they ordered is the mystery, Let's take the smallest number and say the production run was only 5000 cases. One truck goes to Ohio/Kentucky, One truck to Southern Cal. Anything less than that makes no sense, especially given freight costs, and the numbers roughly work out.
For those who read the iHub board, it was posted the Gelson's (one of the latest distributor announcement) had an advertisement in their flyer for the Pulse drinks over the Father's Day weekened. Therefore, it is in stores already. Pulse does not have to wait until the product sells, only until payment from the distributor is assured. I have to believe they chose these distributors specifically so they would get paid quickly and the product would go in the stores immediately.
Worst case, we should see several thousand Pulse case sales on top of Cabana case sales. With a higher gross margin, this will only help their bottom line.
To take that one small step forward one would only have to look at their great sequential growth. Year over year is good but incredible sequential growth really illustrates the sizzle. PLSB is exploding on a sequential basis. A lot of people on message boards don't deal in reality or from the top of the deck, its good to see find another who likes to live in the world of facts.