Go to the" Net Sales" section of the 3/13 10K. Mgmt. was projecting a total of 3 million cases of Cababa to be sold by end of 2013. This estimate was based on "secured and targeted listings to date". I think there was an expectation these listings would start producing immediately but that doesn't seem to be happening since, according to Q3 report, they only clocked 295,000 cases of Cabana so far for 2013. Pulse Bev. seems to be on target regarding getting new listings (17,000 so far), but way off on sales. The question is why?
Baldy says mgmt "pumped" their estimate to sell stock. Frankly, there are far better ways to pump a stock than hiding a one-line statement deep inside a 10K report, LOL. How about we use a little common sense, eh Baldy?
Just for fun let's imagine that Pulse was at least close to their -target with, say, 2-million cases delivered by end of Q3: what would that be per store given 17,000 listings? 3,000,000 / 17,000 = 118 cases (approx) per store over a 9-month period; that comes out to 118 / (9 x 4) = 3.3 cases per week per store. Given that most of these stores are in high-traffic urban areas, selling just 3 cases a week seems conservatively reasonable to me, even for off-season sales. Even if only HALF of he listings had product on the shelf throughout the first three quarters, Pulse STILL would have sold at least 1,000,000 case of Cabana over that period.
That tells me the 3,000,000 cases wasn't some pumpy pie-in-the-sky figure like Baldy claims, but a reasonable ESTIMATE!. So what happened? YOY data tells us that the product is, in fact, selling; if it wasn't, sales numbers would never have gotten to even 295,000 cases.
I think there's a LONG lag time between securing a listing and getting product on the shelf, way longer than what mgmt. had anticipated. See tlast sentence of the Q3 Net Sales section: "... centralized purchasing for large grocery and convenience store chains ... delays in product placement."
OBTW: it would be a good exercise for everyone to read the "Risk Factors" section (Item 1A) in the 10K annual report. Pulse Bev management is very upfront about the risks associated with investing in this type of company, nothing is hidden from view.