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The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Message Board

  • bbdott bbdott Jun 17, 2013 5:42 PM Flag

    Why is SAM always up a year out?

    Will it hit $200 by year end?

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    • With the share count already cut down as much as it is, what effect will growing sales have on keeping this high share price in terms of market cap as a multiple of revenue? Will they have to begin switching gears from buybacks to buyout's of other brewers as with Angry Orchard to keep the revenue growth approaching and hopefully surpassing the $1 billion mark? If they cannot keep the share count from edging higher any longer because of compensation, will they need to mask the dilution effect by buying regional craft brewers or pushing out brand variations to capture more of the market?

      Essentially, going forward, where is the growth going to come from to justify the share price if buybacks are no longer doing the job they once did?

    • Not sure why. Company saw a 20% increase in sales in first quarter, partly due to increasing sales of Angry Orchard. I sold most of my position at 150, but then bought back in at 155, glad I did. I hope there is another pull back before a run to 200.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to hoopervisor2
      • Agreed. I sold Sept 150 calls awhile back, and my rectal diameter has been increasing ever since. It looks like I will have my SAM shares called away, but I still expect to be able to buy it back for less at some time. A PE of 40 is getting a bit silly, given that SAM usually has a PE of about 25-28. That implies a price of about $140.
        It is interesting that the current melt up to 170+ has been on very low volume, generally 25% or less of normal trading volume.

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