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Metabolix, Inc. Message Board

  • notradonos notradonos Nov 13, 2009 10:46 AM Flag

    Anyone else try to get at $9.00 ?

    I called for the prospectus from the underwriters and they said it wasn't finalized yet and then they'd send it out when it was done. How do these offerings work? Anybody have prior experience with buying these deals or do you think its gonna sink below $9.00 again?

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    • I had an order in with a broker @ $9 and it got filled @ $8.91 don't know whether it was dumb luck or what

    • Notra, don't buy it yet. Last night you might have heard the head of SEC enforcement say that hedge fund fraud and insider trading had become "systemic",which means it is too big and widespread for them to control/stop. I believe that and I believe that we are seeing some "color" of it in MBLX. A co-founder, a VP,and the General Counsel sold shares in sept. and October, the latter two within 30 days of the Pearl Harbor announcement of the "public offering". You know they knew about it, and as I have said before, even if it is technically legal, it "does not pass the smell test." They passed gas in the elevator and jumped out before it started down.

      (The good news so far is that at least we haven't heard about some connection to Galleon or Raja-the-Rat-Man himself).

      What is happening now is that the underwriters are unloading the shares that they committed to buy at $8.5275 per share. They want to sell the 3 million plus the 450,000 "over allotment"; they have it pretty well placed among their favorite clients (of which you are obviously not one; I am sorry to say that, like me, you are a bagholder, as in "one who gets left holding the bag". The volume and price action tells us they haven't fully placed the issue. Look at the volumes being traded at the $9.80 level. Small relative to the issue and over allotment. So how do you help your friends buy at $9? You make a little market at higher prices. In the investment banking world it is called providing liquidity to the after-market, or market-making. That support will be withdrawn when they have "filled the tent"; they will light up a stoggie, a real Havanna, and quote P.T. Barnham with a toast of fine champaign: "There's a sucker born every minute".

      I suggest that you wait til Feb. 2010. The insider "lock up period" will be over, the shorts will have finished counting all their money and be ready for another bear raid; and Murphy's Law will prevail again-- i.e. something will go wrong, like further cost overruns or an inability to go from fermentation to recovery on a meaningful scale. Or how about an e-coli outbreak in Iowa?

      Qtr. 1,2010, my bet is you will be able to buy all the stock you might want at well below $9. I would pbobably wait until $6.91, because that is where "Rick", Mr.Transparency and Disclosure himself, has the strike price of his 60,000 options, so I assume that he thinks he can make money north of there. Or get the Board to re-price his options. Hey, it's a jungle out there, Notra; don't leave home without your fatigues.

      Hope this is helpful, Your Fellow Bagholder

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