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Metabolix, Inc. Message Board

  • legendssportpic legendssportpic Nov 17, 2009 10:32 PM Flag

    Waiting for the big price drop....

    Not sure of the etiquette here - do we wait until the price goes to $8 to trash management again?

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    • I forgot, the joke about making up numbers is not specific to anyone on this board. It is much more of a problem on the CERP.OB board due to CERP.OB routinely quoting irrelevent studies to their business or actually making up numbers {e.g. $20M line of credit (which actually could not be over $500K unless the CERP.OB stock exploded in value before CERP.OB exercised subsequent rounds), the number of Chipotle stores (which at some point were to roll out Cerp.ob products, however only 1 or 2 in the Bay Area were ever planned by Chipotle), posters misreading financials and posting a quarterly sales profit as a total quarterly profit, etc.}

    • I try not to pull numbers out of my ass :).

      The $800M comes out of the last cc. I will post it below but I should give credit where credit is do first. does a much better job now in quickly generating transcripts from conference calls. Before their transcripts were so full of errors that they were not readable. Now they are pretty good (even if they don't replace listening to tone and being 100% certain of numbers).

      Here is the relevant portion of the transcript from Seeking Alpha:

      Next the industrial chemicals platform: In C4 chemicals, a key part of our industrial chemicals platform, we completed all work under our ATP grant, a $2 million grant aimed at producing C4 chemicals from renewable sources. C4 chemicals are a large family of chemicals enabling a wide range of end use applications including engineering resins, urethanes, solvents, and personal care products. There were a number of technical milestones outlined in the ATP program and we achieved them all. Based on the accomplishments of this work, we believe we have the technical foundation for an attractive C4 chemicals business. The initial entry is planned around a series of specialty C4 products including the [pareladones] offering an addressable market of about $800 million.

      Our analysis shows that our pathways to these targeted C4 chemicals are robust in the range of $60 to $70 per barrel crude oil and of course at higher levels. Economics will vary somewhat based on the chosen site location, whether we utilize existing capital one facilities, as well as the pricing of sugar raw material. We are pleased with our technical accomplishments and we are continuing work to advance this important technology in our commercialization strategy. We have ongoing discussions with various potential partners as we examine commercialization options.

    • The technology is 100% owned my MBLX. It is worth more than the current market cap.

    • Clinton will work. Included in the $369 million are items not related to overruns.As I have said previously, if a company needs cash, they must go to the market regardless of conditions, assuming that te markets are pen and receptive. They had NO trouble selling the issue. The money is needed because the future is bright, not because they were running low on cash. They have no debt. They could have sold a debt issue, which would have been more expensive. The fact that they were able to sell equity is an excellent sign. No interest charges, no creditors. They sold 100% risk.

    • Dear Teute,
      Oh how I wish you were right. But I am thinking something else. I believe that you are right that the Public Offering news was leaked and that is why Ardour changed to "Reduce" right after the cc Webcast. That plunged the price below $9, close to $8.50 overnight.

      Yes, at exactly the time that the "underwriting gurus" and "management" were pricing the public offering, totally secret as far as the webcasters were concerned. SO WHY DIDN'T THEY PULL THE OFFERING, DELAY IT, INSTEAD OF "PULL THE TRIGGER", as you so well described the homicide?

      I think that it is because they wanted to get it done ahead of the next piece of bad news on Clinton. They sold 3.45 million shares for $8.52 net!! We don't know how much they wanted to raise or for what. But, I am sure that we will know in time that they made a bad deal because to wait would make for a worse deal. In other words, I smell bad new on Clinton coming. And lower prices. I think it is worse than the cost overrun issue exposed by Jaffreys (their view revealed a $369 million cost est. ,remember,compared to Mr. Disclosure and Transparency's "north of 300 million").

      My recommendation is to buy out of the money calls. If Clinton "works", KA-BOOM!! If not, you only lose pocket change.

      Cheers, the Little Bagholder

    • The increase in volume and price are related to the start-up of Clinton 1 - momentarily.

    • My guess is ARDOUR, the investment bank cum brokerage, who put a REDUCE notice out immediately after the cc and 2 days before the offering announcement. As another poster pointed out, the Ardour guy on the phone never asked a question or at least not one that was probing. The papers are filled these days about insider issues.

    • Dear,Dear Teute;
      This has about nothing to do with any purported shareholder right to any pre-announcement about a public offering, although there are some important "rules" about that sort of thing. The many important issues in this case all lie elsewhere, so to speak. One is captured nicely by you in your succinct Nov. 10 posting: "Someone knew about the offering". Now that is an issue worthy of exploring and, indeed, does invoke shareholder rights, including damages and compensation. Any more thoughts about who knew what?

      Have Good Day, the Little Bagholder

    • Dear Ledge,
      It's not so much a matter of etiquette, although Martha Stewart did go to jail very gracefully for a lesser crime. It's more about what you might call "a rule of thumb". Yes that is also the same thumb that "gooses you" or that you can "sit on".

      In this case the "rule" is that you never,never stop trashing a management that has sold you up the river. That would be like temporarily detaining a serial killer or briefly impounding a biting dog.

      Management owes us a lot of information. This Board is practically screaming for a press conference. Where is Mr. Disclosure and Transparency? Not even a press release!! (He did tell us in the last CC that he had just returned from a day at Clinton, and that it was very exciting; he forgot though to post a new picture on the web site, as requested by an analyst!! He didn't even tell us "Hey, listen you Bagholders, go to Google Earth and tell them to update it".The only problem is that you can't see inside the recovery room. It's worse than Gitmo in there; they are having to beat the hell out of those bugs and even "water board" 'em to make them cough up their resin. The Humane Society has been alerted; there is the risk of an e-coli uprising?

      The fact is that there is a long list of withholding info, misleading info, and beating around the bushes and bugs with this management. Just for one more example: go look at the big Rubbermaid co-branding contract. They are going to make nothing but PaperMate disposable ball point pens, the innards of which are not biodegradable anyway. Big f---ing deal. How many ball point pens does it take to add up to 110 million pounds? And you still have to sell them! Well, not to real men and breast feeding mothers, I can tell you!
      And Pharmalife? Well, the "trial" hospital contract begins in March in a state hospital in Denmark, that is if it doesn't get delayed by snow, which it has been known to do at that time of year in Denmark.

      The list goes on and on, Ledge. Don't be fooled by a little price rise. That's to make the clients of the underwriters happy. By February, when the management "lock up" period is over, the engourged bear shorts come out of hibernation, and Murphy's Law prevails (i.e. one more delay, frozen Iowa, tired and rebellious microbe bugs, earthquake, anything you can think of) we will be back at $8 or lower. But, my oh my, don't wait til then to trash management! Trash them everyday, all the way down. Teute will tell you, "some people are just born dumb", but I don't think he knows the smarter half of this management. That's the half that worries me; it kinda like the difference between a really good professional pick-pocket and a clumsy dumb one; these guys are not the latter.

      Wannabe QIB But Forever a Bagholder and Shareholder (Still)

      • 1 Reply to adams.dan19
      • The pen comment is just dumb and invalidates your opinion as a whole.

        Other Rubbermaid lines are coming onboard and Newell-Rubermaid is a huge client looking to have a better green play across many platforms.

        I have no trouble bashing management for lack of guidance but I see no reason to make up stuff. If you believe the disposable pens and pencils in Canada are all that Newell-Rubbermaid are doing then there is little point is assuming you have any insight into the stock.

        The lab partner trial in Europe actually is big news as well. While certainly it will have no impact on immediate sales, it is a big market and again shows that MBLX has some capability in finding market segments that can financially justify a premium for their product capabilities.

        If you are so certain the stock will hit the 8's again then there is no logic for you to be a bag holder as you claim you are at this point. The volume is high enough that you can easily get out in the 10s. You are certain it will be in the 8's. What kind of complete moron would own a stock in the 10's, push for it to be in the 8's and continue to hold it?

        As such, I think it is fairly easy to question your honesty as well as your knowledge of the stock.

    • Some people are born dumb.

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