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Metabolix, Inc. Message Board

  • Antasia_x Antasia_x Oct 13, 2010 11:53 AM Flag

    It’s game time! Do you wanna play a game?

    As I sit here in my house I’m looking around and see a sea of plastic. Non biodegradable plastic exits in millions of product and someday the majority of it will end up in our landfill. Whenever I walk into my 8 year old son’s room I see piles of plastic (Legos, Nerf guns, etc. etc.). As he grows up some of that will be pass to other kids and some of it will break and end up in our landfill.

    Metabolix has a game changing product. It can be used in microwave food trays. It can be used in my son’s toys. It can be used for millions of products yet it has two major advantages over regular plastics: first, it isn’t created from petroleum and second, it can biodegrade.

    Okay so how much is that game changing technology worth? Some of the longs here would like you to believe that this company is only worth as much as its next earnings report. Personally, I’ve invested in other gaming technology companies and I’ve see some of them sell for as much as five times what I paid for them.

    Zillow has a nice feature called “make me move”. You are allowed to tell others what price you’d be willing to sell your home for and then post that number on Zillow.

    As a shareholder of Metabolix, what is your “make me move” price?

    I realize that many of us are probably holding with the idea of holding forever (or at least until infinity and beyond :) but if you had to sell today then what price would you settle for?

    Thank you for playing!

    - A

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    • Thank you for the valuable comments

    • matthewsnow, you and petrp78 are both welcome to play the game.
      The question at hand still is:
      “How much is that game changing technology worth?”

      If you don’t want to answer that one then how about this one:
      What do you think of people who are shorting this stock?

      petrp78 clearly gets upset when people call him a short but…

      I’ve gotta admit that you and petrp78 are my two favorite shorts on this board ‘-)
      The reason, your actions and deeds are those of a short and you don’t even know it.
      You don’t really take on the risks of the typical short; regardless you trade like one.

      Here’s my explanation…

      A typical short sells with the expectation that the stock will fall.
      As a trader, you sell for the exact same reason.

      A typical short buys when they believe the stock has bottomed
      As a trader, you buy for the exact same reason.

      A typical short will post messages here to “help inform investors”
      LOL, just recently one of you posted something to help inform investors why the company isn’t worth as much as they think it is. Giving us your reasons why it should go down. The shorts must looooove ya ‘-)

      A typical short posts targets that are much lower than the current market price
      Ah Ha! That’s exactly what one of you keeps doing over and over again… They really luuuuve u ‘-)

      The only difference I see between the typical short and the smarter-than-all trader is that the typical short has much bigger balls. He is taking unlimited risk because the stock he’s betting against might pop and squeeze or it might be bought for a large multiple. As a trader the only risk that you’re taking is that the stock won’t come back down to your lowball target and you won’t be able to keep playing the game.

      Now back to the company that you’ve been “trading”…

      I don’t really agree with your premise that this is still a trading stock. I realize that you’ve done a great job taking advantage of the trends and scraping profits from new investors who bought into the story, but I truly believe that the story has changed and that is why we’re starting to see nice support at these levels.

      IMHO, Metabolix is metamorphosing from a purely event driven story stock into a real company with real products and unlimited potential.

      Several key changes happened this year as a new chapter turned for this company:

      * The Meril plant in Clinton Iowa was completed and is operational
      * The FDA approved Meril for use in several food contact applications
      * Together with Rubbermaid they proved that Mirel works well for injection molding
      * They’ve signed up several new customers and some are winning awards
      * Mirel is now listed on the USDA Biopreferred program, which designates biobased products that are preferred for purchase by Federal agencies and their contractors

      Get a little cocky boys, short the stock and you may just awake in the morning to a Rubbermaid buyout of the company for three, four or five times the current price. The question was “How much is that game changing technology worth?” IMHO, only shorts and traders who don’t currently own wouldn’t want to play that game ‘-)

      • 1 Reply to Antasia_x
      • I guess I'm inferior? less manly? than a buy and hold because I buy when I think it is too cheap and sell when I think it is too expensive?

        The question 'how much is a game changing technology worth' is spurious. The question investors should ask is what is the discounted cash flow MBLX will earn from a:) Mirel and b) the other programs.

        My point is that it is extremely hard to tell what the DCF is. Which is precisely why the stock price swings all over.. it moves more on psychological factors than quantifiable facts... so far.

        I don't see Mirel as a game changing technology. It's a nice product for ag uses (which may be big), but there are too many competitors and it is too expensive to 'change the game'. We'll get good insight in a couple of weeks which should enable much better DCF estimates.

        The other programs might be 'game changing' but when and maybe if are by no means certain. If you draw a straight line through the percentage of plastic in switchgrass a few years ago, to their latest numbers then to the 6% (in whole plant) they need: a) if they can do it, it is a few years away then a few more to commercialize and b) I don't know the probability of achieving it. Will the yield curve flatten? Steepen through some breakthrough? If you look back a couple of years at what they said, they appear to be behind schedule. If they can do it, this is an extremely valuable company.

        Assigning a price certain to something with so many uncertainties is a risky way to invest. We just don't know. That's my answer.

        And by the way, I didn't post a low price target. I clearly said if they 'prove' maybe 40mm pounds + next year the price would go up, maybe hugely due to the short interest. If they keep relying on 'pipeline' and 'evaluation' it will get beaten down. I'd love a 60% pop but the thought of a 40% loss based on a guess or hope is just not for me. I'd rather buy in at 18 after earnings if they 'prove' sales.

    • Antasia, see eye to eye with you, no big deal with few nervous shorts but for MBLX nothing but good news from here onwards.GLTA

    • OMG! I couldn't sleep this morning thinking of this message board.

      We all believe in the "game-changing" technology or else we wouldn't be here on the MBLX message board.

      The possibilities of the technology and the overvaluation of the stock is precisely what makes MBLX such a good trading vehicle.

      I cannot stand the buy and hold investors that jeer and bully people that develope trading ideas on MBLX. This board is for presenting alternative ideas and information about MBLX. This board is not for cheerleading.

      Someone recently accussed me of being short MBLX. Another person essentially called me jealous because I didn't own shares at this point. What are you buy and hold investors even doing on this board?

      For example: I think $14 a share is short-term resistance, and the upper end of a new range. In a week I think MBLX will be near $12 again. This statement is not to insult you, it doesn't put down the MBLX technology, it effects your infinity long position in no way. So why would you infinity long folks jeer a comment like this? People like Braintrust and myself are trying to make money now on MBLX. If you have been paying attention to the stock market for the last 20 years, buy and hold is a zero sum game. You can make fun of charts all you want, but it is an additional piece of information that is valuable in trading. Also, with all the hyper trading moving the stock market these days, understanding what triggers these speed trader decisions is essential.

      Good luck. Buy GERN and AMSC and BCRM

      • 3 Replies to petrp78
      • petrp78

        Unlike matt, you seem to acknowledge that Metabolix has a game changing technology, yet for some reason you appear to think that only traders have a right to post on this board whereas buy and hold investors should be seen but not heard… ROFL, you are too funny ‘-))

        In your proclamation that “This board is for presenting alternative ideas and information about MBLX”, I agree, and would like to point out that my request for “putting a value on the technology” is a valuable exercise. My alternative idea is that “this technology is worth a lot” and causes Metabolix to be a potential takeover candidate. If serious investors have an idea of what they’d sell for then they are better prepared to accept or protest a takeover should one occur. It appears that you don’t currently own a position in this company hence I can see why you don’t consider this worthy exercise. IMHO, thou protests too much ;-))

        In my reply to matt I pointed out a few of the reasons I consider Mirel a game changing technology. For your edification I’ll repeat those here:

        “Mirel is a material that works well in the injection molding process, has FDA approval for food contact (from frozen food storage to boiling water up to 212°F, including microwave reheating), should soon have FDA approval for selling into thermoforming and film food contact markets, and is listed on the USDA Biopreferred program… Gaming changing? YES! IMHO, they have stepped the game up to a whole new level!”

        The following is a quote regarding Rubbermaid’s recent experience with this technology.

        “Bret Marschand, senior development manager for Newell Rubbermaid Office Products conducted a thorough evaluation of various biobased materials for use in the company’s products. He selected Mirel for its unique combination of performance and biodegradability.“Mirel molds very well, processes in conventional injection molding equipment, and is durable in use,” said Marschand. “Add these characteristics to its biodegradability profile, and we have found a remarkable material that fits into our global corporate sustainability goals.”

        It is worth repeating:

        Mirel is unique: “He selected Mirel for its unique combination of performance and biodegradability”

        Mirel is remarkable: “we have found a remarkable material that fits into our global corporate sustainability goals”

      • Stock will be up around $16 - $17 after election and right before earnings release. If MBLX announces new customers, by name, and indicates demand exceeds 50 million lb run rate by 2H11, then stock goes to $20. If they don't discuss customers, 2011 demand, and game plan for expanding capacity then stock goes back to $12 range.

        This stock will explode within next 2 - 4 years. If you time it right and leverage call options, you could make a fortune.

        Does any one on this board live around Clinton, IA?

      • Totally agree. Right now, this is a trading stock. Maybe someday, when they have volume customers it will be a buy and hold. But you could have made a decent return over the last three years trading on some fairly obvious trends. If you bought and hold, you'd be down about 60% in the last three years.

        Use technical analysis, tea leaves, tarot cards, whatever.. don't just sit on it though. Don't forget this stock could be at 5 or 50 in a year.

    • “Okay so how much is that game changing technology worth? Some of the longs here would like you to believe that this company is only worth as much as its next earnings report.”

      So the earnings report (i.e. facts) are not relevant, only the possibility of 'game changing technology' reaping huge rewards sometime in the future. Reminds me of 1999 when I kept hearing that earnings didn’t matter, it was ‘mind share’ and ‘eyeballs’ that made a company valuable.

    • I bought recently near $10 because of all the progress the company made this year (Rubbermaid test of injection process, rubber stamp by FDA, completion of phase one of the Clinton plant, several new customers, etc.)

      You are right, this is a game changing technology hence it will probably be swallowed up by a much bigger player. A $50 price tag makes it a $2 billion purchase and I believe someone will pay at least that to buy them out.

 
MBLX
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