Intw0, if you read between the lines from the last few conference calls, it is pretty clear that anything with CJ was on the back burner. I’m guessing they’re hesitating because it would require and investment from Metabolix and right not they are focusing all their extra resources on getting a bioplastic manufacturing facility up and going. Management also explained that once they have the ability to manufacturer their bioplastics it should be fairly easy to add biochemicals to the same facility; this gives them even more incentive to bring a manufacturer online.
jakehines, I know that you’ve been watching Cereplast fail for a long time and see some parallels between both companies. I believe that the main difference right now is that Metabolix has better technology, more patents and more cash but Cereplast has/had a manufacturing arm. Do you know, have they lost their manufacturer (did they own their manufacturer) and would it make since for Metabolix to approach the same one? Metabolix has some pretty big investors who would really like to see them succeed (including former Abbott Labs Exec Jack Schuler who has nearly $20Mil invested there)… Would it make since for some of Metabolix’s investors to purchase Cereplast’s manufacturing arm and merge that with Metabolix? I’d like to see the current team (Meta & Anti) succeed but believe that they don’t have an exclusive arrangement so Metabolix could have more than one manufacturing partner in Europe.
Cereplast is one of many plastic compounders, they specialize in bio-based plastics but likely have little to nothing to offer mblx. Mblx holds many proprietary blending patents and will licensee those to any compounder including cereplast.
Mblx NEEDS, NEEDS NEEDS high margin chemicals partners. There has been zip news on the CJ JV, but in looking at similar companies they really need feedstock at cost as much as they need distribution. If CJ is still their only partner I'm not optimistic. - the must relentlessly hammer on expanding their chemical platform.
Some small differences: Eno's company has over 160x more cash, nearly $30 Million less debt, much more interesting products, hundreds of more patents, several research grants and real potential for growth.
You're asking the wrong guy. Normey seems to be a really nice guy and very knowledgeable, but he's been a believer in MBLX since it was over $20. It you're getting your advice from Normey, then you better be prepared to lose a ton of money like he has on this POS stock. I would say the same thing about me 2 to 3 years ago, but I finally figured out that Eno and MBLX was smoke and mirrors after being burnted by their propaganda time and time again. I've been saying SELL SELL SELL now for many months, and you would have saved a lot of money if you had listened to me back then. If you listen to Normey, you will LOSE LOSE LOSE - if history is any indication. You can't believe any thing Eno says.
Sorry Normey. Fool me once - shame on you. Fool me twice - shame on me. Fool me for about 20 straight earnings releases - like Eno has done time and time again - then you'd have to be a complete fool to buy this stock without first seeing credible evidence that MBLX finally has a commercial product that someone wants to buy large quantities of. Haven't seen any evidence of that - ever - thus you be sitting on the sidelines waiting to pull the triggers. To buy this stock after reading all of the earnings transcripts with historical stock chart in front of you only means you're a complete idiot or like gamble and lose.
it would seem there are several parallel comments here that one could simply switch Eno/MBLX with Fred Scheer / Cereplast. Same general company histories. Rather interesting and thought provoking.
To be fair, the last time I bought was at $1.18. IlovePelosi said the exact same thing he said above...except he said a lot more of it. If you listened to him you missed a double opportunity or worse...you shorted. Again, this is the last time we spoke of the stock.
Each time since it's taken some drop, he's popped up and the stock has rebounded. Hopefully today is more of the same.
As for tomorrow, I don't know what to make of the call. My logic for buying is that I assume MBLX must be able to announce a production date by the Q1 call. When that date is makes a big difference but at a minimum they need to be able to stick their necks out for analysts.
My expectations for the EOY call tomorrow are now higher due to the lateness of the scheduling. Though I'm betting they did this due to needing to figure out fluid issues in Spain between Wacker, labor, and Antibioticos...I still have light hope they will give more specific guidance. However, historically this has not been something they do much of and with the lawsuits not being settled it is unknown what they can say.
On a different track...I don't get the logic of say antibioticos is a bad choice. If there is a profitable market for mirel (the true question that will define the winning and losing share positions) then why not Antibioticos? MBLX absolutely needed facilities that were there, required little tailoring, and weren't being used for other things. It appears Antibioticos needs MBLX to be a success as well. And if Antibioticos can't financially make it to production and is bought out by a larger German company with interests in the sector...where is the harm there? Good argument for the technology quickly expanding and a good argument for localized smaller production vs intentions with Clinton plant.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I was wondering where you had disappeared to... Today, with the stock down, it's fair game to reappear. I Lov....we 're going to get some resolution to all this bs next Tuesday. You would think after 20 plus years, one product would result. I'm hoping, given so so so so many chances at bat, Eno will finally hit the ball. Having not a bunt yet, Odds are certainly in his favor to finally connect!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!