What this move tells me is that management had a plan that was streamlined and heading to breaking even but antibiotico was a gamble that did not pay off. It will cost the company and stock should go back to $1.5 but they still can make this company profitable as don't need much to achieve that. I am back in at $1.5 or first 200k bid I see.
My concern is the chem business could have been realized by now but they are pursuing a holistic approach with the Antibioticos plant. It made sense in a vacuum but not in the light of their cash position. In short, I think they need to get to a profitable business somewhere quickly. Do that and money to expand elsewhere should be easy to get.
I do think the $2 mark set by Jefferies makes sense. The financial restructuring at Antibioticos does cloud the value of the MBLX IP.
The Tianjin thing seems to make a lot of sense now. MBLX appears to not have production capabilities from their demo plant to meet the future needs of even current clients. 33% q on q growth may not continue in short term due to some of the sales likely being EOY in nature but I could see something like the ball horticulture usage grow quickly and possibly be a natural place where the Tianjin production could make a big difference.
Annual shareholders meeting and Q1 call should be interesting. A lot to answer to related to Antibioticos.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Re-read the Dec 18th announcement... They not only need PHA resin but since worldwide construction is starting to pick up again they may eventually need a lot of it:
"I6001, a biobased polymeric modifier for PVC (polyvinyl chloride) formulations based on Metabolix PHA resin"
Well that is a reasonable and optimistic interpretation. Also, I guess it speaks well of mblx's IP and licensing leverage, in that China came to them to distribute and mblx didn't license the IP to China which could be disastrous for theft possibilities. Again, hope I'm spectacularly wrong, but I'm not optimistic at this time. Still holding. Best