Just Listened to Earnings Call - My Advice is SELL SELL SELL
It's end of 1Q 2012 and they now have about $39 million in cash, and will burn about $30 million this year plus any additional capital needed for the Spain facility which they have already invested $2.3 million and said there would be more capital required. Management also said they had enough capital to meet needs for 2013 and 12 months. That statement alone is very eye opening and should put FEAR in any investor.
It also appeared that they still don't have a final agreement signed with the manufacturer, who Eno says he is talking to frequently about their finances and ability to reopen. The jury is out as to whether it is even a going concern. When analyst asked Eno how long it would take to get their product manufactured once the finances were resolved, Eno refused to give a timeline. When asked again about timing of production, he gave impression that technology and engineering had all been transferred, but once again refused to give a timeline. All we know is that MBLX still doesn't have an agreement with manufacturer, and they will be required to invest more capital.
Analyst asked MBLX about cash burn and sources for future financing. Eno wouldn't give any specifics, but said they had many interested parties and several options. Any company that only has 12 months worth of cash flow left, is burning over $7 million a quarter, and has less than $5 million in annual revenue is DESPERATE! Particularly since they had several secondary offerings, and have failed miserably at delivering what they promised time and time again.
The odds are increasing every day that existing shareholders are going to lose most if not all of their current investment in MBLX. My opinion is that this stock will likely go below $1 before year end. I'm not a professional analyst, just a retail investor sharing an opinion. Eno didn't sound nearly as confident as he did during the 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012 earnings call. I think he's desperate!
April is almost over. MBLX should now have around $37 million in cash. Analysts are LOWERING their expectations for next year, not raising them. Click on the Analyst Estimates on the prior page in left column and check out the recent trends. Analysts get access to the management team that you and I don't have the luxury of. If there were any significant positive developments in regards to new products or significant new customers, the management team would share that information with the analysts one way or the other as they are desperate to get the stock up and raise additional cash.
Don't be surprised if secondary offering soon, MBLX is sold, or you start seeing high level management personnel resign from the company. If the CFO is competent and has a strong resume, he will resign from the company in the near future to "pursue other opportunities" if he sees no opportunity to generate cash and thinks company is going bankrupt. If you see CFO resign you should no longer be nervous about your investment in MBLX, but should be FRIGHTENED!
Can anyone explain why they would choose to include "GreenBio will supply PHA resins to Metabolix" in an actual press release? Buying resin from a Chinese supplier and slapping their label on it. Come on now, there was no reason to include that little tidbit in the PR, it should have been buried deeply in some obscure SEC filing. I think insiders are playing their own #$%$ the naked short side before another round of lawsuits. imho.
So, if this company was put up for auction, IP and all, what price range do think we'd see? do you think it's truly worth zero dollars? I have set expectations to zero and I don't disagree that something has got to give here in the next 12 months but liquidation price could, imho, reasonably be a few 100 million. ~ 3X current market cap.