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Metabolix, Inc. Message Board

  • ilovepelosi ilovepelosi Nov 6, 2013 8:53 PM Flag

    What's next?

    The earnings release had the following statement at the end: "The Company will attempt to obtain additional funding through public or private financing, collaborative arrangements with strategic partners or through additional credit lines or other debt financing sources, in order to increase the funds available to support future operations."

    ATTEMPT is the key word. With MBLX's track record, it's very unlikely they will be able to get institutional investors to buy another $25 to $50 million of stock. They also have no revenue or cash flow to service any debt. Thus they won't be able to borrow the $25 to $50 million needed, unless they can find someone who will accept their patents and assets as collateral. Finding a strategic partner who is willing to provide the financial support will be very difficult given ADM just wrote off over $400 million investment in Clinton and told MBLX to hit the road. There is clearly no pent up demand for the product, and potential manufacturers saw what just happened to ADM. Thus, no appetite to retool any of their manufacturing processes and incur opportunity costs. The only manufacturer they could find was a bankrupt company that required $2.3 million investment from MBLX before they would evaluate feasibility and retool.

    Each month that passes, MBLX burns another $2 million in cash and gets more desperate. They'll have no choice but to formally put the company up for sale in about 6 months given the lead time necessary to find potential buyers, enable them to complete their due diligence, get approval, and close the deal. I think stock will go down to around 40 to 60 cents, and then someone will buy the company for about 60 to 90 cents a share. Purely speculation on my part, but something big has to be announced soon, else company will file for bankruptcy in about a year and assets will be auctioned off.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • Re: "ATTEMPT is the key word. With MBLX's track record, it's very unlikely they will be able to get institutional investors to buy another $25 to $50 million of stock."

      Agreed, but they probably could get another $5Mil from Jack Schuler if they agreed to put him on the board and remove the restrictions for how he votes his shares. The current market cap appears to be very close to what he has invested here (although I haven't done the math to be sure); a person with that much invested might double down at these levels provided they can see hope. We both know that products and the patents are worth much more than the company, but that value can't be unlocked unless the company falls into the right hands. Eno's hands are weak and appear to be worthless but Jack has connections. The board has a fiduciary responsibility to shareholders so they need to look for stronger hands and they need to announce a real partnership. Waiting for Antibioticos to complete a court case that could takes years is and always has been the wrong approach.

      This stock could double overnight if Jack doubled down; it would be a sign to both retail and institutional investors that there's still something here worth investing in. Adding Jack to the board would also add confidence. I don't know why the board hasn't already done that; they clearly need help and Eno isn't the man.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • But you say, "something BIG has to be announced soon, else....." What are you implying by "Something Big" after your statement of doom. "Something Big" from you is implying that you still believe there may be something here. No one would ever doubt you, but agree, that Eno has been extremely difficult / impossible to understand / believe !!!!

    • IlovPelosi,
      I don't think I completely understand this message. If I am not mistaken, did I not see that the sales for the last quarter were $230,000. We have a 100+ customers now. I suspect they are really "customers in waiting". That is, they are waiting for assurances from us (MBLX) that they can get the volume of goods before they will retool their operations and purchase. The $230,000 is just sales to potential customers for test purposes. So, what's to come first the chicken or the egg? Are we to interpret Eno's gestures to mean that we have the customers (I am interpreting this as a guarantee from him, since we have heard Eno's "customer line" so so so many times), but we need a manufacturing facility before they will purchase. If this is the case, we are in good shape. The worst case is that Peoples and his group have to swallow a little pride, work for another company and don't get to be in the Forbes 100. If this is not the case, ADM was right. Eno is nothing more than a glorified high school chemistry teacher....Schuler and the mutual funds still hanging tough were wrong.

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