Attention RobCos! Please read the 12 May comment by 'misterastab'. His points are well taken. Personally I am encouraged by the absence of pre-presentation touting of the stock in advance of the CEO's upcoming appearance. That's a change.
Good point, It's just that simple Ziopharm/Intrexon management and intellectual
recourses should be the focus in its ability to be successful in the collaboration for the
development of new drugs. This is a bet on the "team" in the long term.
Lucky and a few other may be smart enough to figure a short term course
in share price based on probability of a near term catalyst, I choose to the proven RJ
method making a bet and seeing it through.
Like in Halozyme, for instance? Or the 5-year+ slog in CLDA?
"Bertrand Russell wisely warned that the less evidence someone has that his ideas are right, 'the more vehemently he asserts that there is no doubt whatsoever that he is exactly right.'" WSJ 5/12
The (sole) real near term catalyst absent speculative thinking is Picasso 3 result, and this could be a catalyst for good or ill. Probabilities strongly favor good, but it is a likely early 2013 event -- near term but still a number of months off. In the interim, it is not really clear that they are doing much else right now. Intrexon has been a lot of talk; not a whole lot of action.
The downside risk for ZIOP is no longer limited to $4 while we wait for a catalyst -- real or imaginary. $3.50 or even $3 is now potentially in the cards prior to catalytic recovery and upside as risk-off mentality dominates US equities (IMO), Summer is here, US election creates additional uncertainty, etc.
As you peel back the onion, putting aside the massive short interest in ZIOP, you still have years to get to revenue under the best case scenario for ZIOP.
While ZIOP is committed to a rapid search for the truth, investors were simultaneously "opposite of sandbagged" on the key topic of "when P3 patient enrollment would be complete?" As far as we can tell from public disclosure, enrollment continues and is now "nearly complete (~4 months later). Back at end of JANUARY, when people probably expected it to be complete, it was then described at end of month as "nearly 90 percent complete," to paraphrase. Now mid-May is is STILL not complete. Rapid pursuit of the truth?! Apparently only when it is convenient, or only as specifically applied to killing off bad programs quickly and moving others forward rapidly. Meanwhile, NO (zero) new development announced on the various Intrexon programs. What gives? Apparently, like grey, truth comes in infinite shades.
We know or at least should expect that the shorts are going to continue to ramp up the pressure in the absence of a catalyst, and ZIOP has effectively pushed that catalyst from potentially early or mid 3Q2012 best case back into likely 1Q 2013, with NDA best case unlikely before mid-2013.
If we are fair, ZIOP commitment to the truth inevitably includes some important caveats. Those caveats may include consistency with perceived self interest in the context of attempting to unload as much stock as possible on investors at the highest possible price -- which is to say "protecting the interests of existing common shareholders (themselves included) potentially at the expense of new shareholders."
People ask why Kirk is not buying open market, as if he is continually precluded from doing so. They should probably stop asking that question or making excuses. Kirk will buy when he sees the stock trading at a screaming discount to full value. except in the rare case where he really is precluded from buying based on inside information. We are not there yet IMO from the screaming buy argument. If the company maintains its philosophical interpretation of "truth," or if things just don't go well in the Markets, we may get there a lot sooner than they had bargained. Question will be when can they pull off another up round of financing.
Meanwhile, the touters on this board have largely used up their usefulness, IMO, and the professional shorts have largely been silent (which itself is unusual and cause for some concern).
All just IMO. I am long in the stock and hoping for better days early 2013. If there were an acquisitive hedge fund out there, now would be a great time to dollar average in to ZIOP, warts and all.
But we would all appreciate some operational performance in line with expectations that this company had set in 2011 (going beyond P3).
That's part of the problem here so far. Lots (publicly) going on @ Intrexon). I would assume ZIOP is also making progress on the synthetic side(via Intrexon) but impossible to tell from the outside. The perception is that ZIOP may be a bit of a step child in Kirk's world for the time being.
One year and 3 months of partnering and nothing yet tangible----not even a hint.