Agree they are rolling the dice on Ph. 3 data in STS (and SCLC) and not doing an Offering prior. Not sure if that is by choice/design -- or they really don't have a choice.
Anyway lot riding on Pali Ph. 3.
It look like some "painting the tape" last hour of trading today contributed to share weakness. Shorts are emboldened, maybe, and longs are often underwater and in any case losing their religion.
It's a waiting game for data. It is a coin flip whether the stock weakens into the low 3s -- or appreciates to upper 4s -- in the lead up to March 2013 data. A coin flip. Marginal buying interest would change the dynamic, but only time will tell if it is out there waiting to bust a move.
If there are longs out there waiting to pile in, they may be waiting for some more share weakness. Meanwhile emboldened shorts are doing what they do.
It should be noted that the price action in the market these days has absolutely nothing to do with foreshadowing how the Ph. 3 data will turn out. A solid case can be made that the Ph. 3 data will be strong (or at least strong enough).
Still, the weakness in the price action suggests we will see some more weakness / negative momo next week and through the mo of January. There are no clinical milestones or news movers likely in this time frame. The company needs cash out to 2015, so the Picasso 3 HAS to be good data. No room for error.
With good data, the stock takes care of itself, they refinance, and it is a whole new ball of wax. They refinance or partner/sell Pali.