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ZIOPHARM Oncology, Inc. Message Board

  • rob_cos rob_cos Feb 13, 2013 9:11 AM Flag

    Multiple interested parties to partner Pali with its 2029 patent,favorable safety/pricing

    There is clearly multiple interested potential partners in this 2029 patented protected drug that would take IFOS off-label with a call option on enormous unmet SCLC disease internationally as well.....

    Listen those who went to the ZIOP dinner and R&D day and talked to the institutional investors, analysts, and investment bankers in the room clearly left with the impression that even back in June (really back to Jan I think) that RJ Kirk has been negotiating with potential palifosfamide partners - based upon comments made loud and clear at the January JP Morgan conference by ZIOP CEO Lewis and again today to Bloomberg, there clearly are MULTIPLE interested parties. And why wouldn't there be.....their is a clear unmet medical need in Sarcoma for a safer, easily tolerable drug like PALI where there is no need to take IV mesna drug to offset side effects. The drug would likely immediately take a nice share of the many IFOS off-label indications because of the better safety and tolerability and the 2029 patent allows companies to consider other trial combinations (in addition to the IL-12+Pali breast cancer trial including Pali in the Intrexon side of ZIOP business as well). The REAL free upside call option - SCLC where nothing has been approved in 40 yrs and where the disease is growing in Asia like wildfire - well IF it works in that there is enormous upside -I would imagine there would be a CVR related to that indication

    So as I was saying - good data is very important but only the FIRST domino that will double this from the $4 area given the current short interest % of float....but then imo a partnership comes fast (with possible multiple competing bids) - heck I would not be shocked if the parameters are not already framed out subject to 3 month PFS benefit and certain hazard ratio. Normally I would say $200 million up front and up to another $800 million backend, but given the patent life and depending on whether a CVR is included for Small Cell Lung Cancer upside - well the up front payment might surprise to the upside, One thing is clear - this drug will be partnered quickly as Kirk is more interested in getting say 10 Ph 2 IL-12/Rheo Switch/Synthetic bio trials going with the upfront cash. Then this really gets exciting....

    I see at least $7-$8 on good data (with volatility the first few days - then continued uptick - and perhaps one of the great short squeezes if shorts are not covered by warrants), followed by a partnership in the coming month - which imo will get this to double digits - then you get the IL-12 Intrexon upside (technology I am more and more convinced will change at least solid tumor medicine as we know it) for free. Do not sell too soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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