Trick #38 Sometime this week or early next we will hear that the data has leaked and it is very bad. They will even manufacture downside volume to add a good dose of fear to the equation. DO NOT BE FOOLED. These guys are still short and are looking for a way out. Watch the options if the stock trades down again. Call buying is likely shorts hedging at a reduced cost while they try to keep the common under pressure.
Trick #39 is for a long poster to suddenly turn negative. They are expert at sowing fear by posting under a name that is very similar to a long-time active long.
Trick #40-The Flashing News Story that shows up for 20 seconds and then disappears. Expect the headline to read ZIOPHARM Reports Negative Data!!!!!!! or some other fabrication.
Trick #41--Dust off Clinical Data playbook and publish a shockingly similar article.
Hopefully Dr. Lewis and Co. get data out soon. The shorts bought an amazing number of April calls today. I am guess they were also major sellers of the puts as the fear premium expanded.
Shame on them for manufactering nonsense.
It's always the new one I worry about. I'm still trying to figure out how a Q4 for a biotech that shows plenty of cash and increased expenses related to increased trials could be a negative catalyst. Then a friend of mine walks over to my office and asks if I saw ZIOP and should they sell. All I could say was that I bought a few more shares that I didn't need. Whenever I start to get the "oh no" feeling, I go back to the data and science and come out feeling much better. CLDA had a lot of gaming in it, also. And I still think Pali is low hanging fruit.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Lewis designed a good trial and patient selection/radiological review was/is top-notch. Pali will be the new IFOS and I believe robust SCLC enrollments in MATISSE (open-label) give us laypersons a hint that the HOG Group just might be seeing something. I still believe this drug partners for $200MM++ upfront plus a CVR on the SCLC.
Celgene is the natural fit but there could be a traditional player out there wishing to cut a much broader deal involving both Pali and synthetics.
Either way, we need good data first. Fingers, toes, and hooves crossed.