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Doral Financial Corp. Message Board

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Jun 30, 2013 4:10 PM Flag

    Occam's Razor

    Says that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. Here are 3 possible explanations for why the DRL executive was murdered:

    1. It was done by the bank to hide an accounting scandal.
    2 years later and the police and FBI have no credible evidence of this. The supposed accounting scandal has not turned up despite 2 years of annual outside audits, several quarterly reports and reviews by internal auditors, review by the DRL Board and INTENSIVE review by bank regulators under the bank's Consent Order.

    2. It was unrelated to the bank
    Driving a luxury car in traffic can be dangerous - especially if you happen to cut off the wrong care. Could have been many other personal reasons as well.

    3. It was related to an employee or customer impacted by layoffs or other actions at the bank.
    The Exec who was murdered had cut hundreds of jobs to reduce costs. How many former employees or family members may have been upset. In the course of doing business, a bank normally forecloses on properties, denies loan applications and denies to rollover existing loans to businesses that become less creditworthy. This can have a big impact on people's lives and it's easy to blame a bank or bank executive instead of broad economic problems, the failings of your business or other economic factors.

    I would say the odds of each of the above theories being correct are

    1. .01%
    2. 19.99%
    3. 80%

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    • Anything is possible that is why "Justifying" was invented. The public doesn't know what the true facts are yet and it may forever go unsolved. Number 4 on your list could obviously be the wife. She is just as much as a suspect and more so than anyone else.
      If you google this news article that just posted two hours ago you will see why the defense will be investigating possibilities that it could be the wife.
      Google this. "Woman accused in Puerto Rico murder-for-hire scheme"
      After not pinning it on anyone two years later anybody who new him could be a suspect.

      • 2 Replies to boyt1961
      • I went to Puerto Rico ten or so years ago. The place is a cesspool if you ask me. The cab driver we had told us that he lost fares that were pulled out of the cab by robbers at stop lights. Almost everyone living there is a potential suspect.

      • That very well could be the case. I do know that if sensational charges are made of an accounting scandal coverup the chances that all the investigators, auditors, accountants and regulators would not find one after 2 years of looking means it probably doesn't exist. I don't know why exec was murdered, but I know the whole story about it being to coverup an accounting scandal is 99.99% BS.

    • IMO it is not so much the murder but the claims of unsound banking practises. In 2006 the DRL stock crashed on the news of an accounting scandal. It turned out that the DRL management was cooking the books. The market cap lost was $5B. In 2007 they did their previous R/S which did not fare well.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to johnny66_invest4us
      • There is no doubt that DRL had some unsound banking practices. They have taken large write-offs over the past couple of years. Under the Consent Order their books have faced an unusually high level of scrutiny and regulators tend to be very aggressive in writing things off.

        As a current investor I could really care less about how investors who bought years ago did. I care about what the bank is worth relative to the current stock price given all the write-offs and losses that have already been taken. Book value is $3.66 / share and they have an additional $2.22 / share in deferred tax assets that will be added back to book over the next couple of years as they return to profitability. 83 cents / $5.88 = 14%. FBP and BPOP are trading not far from book. If DRL only gets to 50% of adjusted book it will be a $3 stock in a couple of years.