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Horizon Organic Holdings (HCOW) Message Board

  • Pickle_007 Pickle_007 Jul 18, 1999 12:54 AM Flag

    This is an OT post on a favorite stock


    of mine recently. It's about SKX
    (Skechers USA) a manufacturer of stylish shoes that went
    public on 6/9/99 @ 11. SKX ran up to 12 3/8 and then
    tanked last week, closing at 7 today, 4 points and 36.6
    % under it's IPO of just a month ago.

    It's a
    nationally recognized shoe which every woman, adult or teen
    has heard of. Here's the post I copied with today's
    trading pattern wrap up:

    SKX's trading pattern
    Thursday, 7/15
    by: Pickle_007 (M/East Coast) 304 of 308

    based on 328,600 shares volume, which I can't compare
    yet to average daily volume, until Yahoo starts
    posting average volume. However, 7/14's volume was
    305,800 shares, 7/13's was 225,600, 7/12's was 428,400
    and the day SKX (Skechers USA) cracked badly, which
    was July 6, the volume was 2,078,500 and the range
    that day was 10 on the high to 7 on the low with a
    close of 7 3/4.

    Of today's 328,600

    101,000 shares traded on the bid

    traded in the middle

    173,000 shares traded on
    the offer and the average price SKX traded at today
    was $ 6.85. There were 273 trades that averaged 1204
    shares per trade. SKX (Skechers USA) closed at 7, up
    1/16 on a last sale basis and the closing quote was 6
    15/16 bid for 1500 shares offered at 7 for 5000 shares.
    However, in the closing moments and reported directly
    after the market close were about 4 trades totalling
    almost 15,000 shares all @ 7. If I had to guess, I
    suspect the quote couldn't be electronically changed to
    reflect these trades as the market had ended. In which
    case, the 5000 shares offered at 7 may be gone. We will
    find out in the morning.

    Today's range was 6
    1/2 on the low and that marked a few blocks that
    quickly downticked to trade and 7 1/16 on the high. No
    sooner had the approximate 20,000 shares trade at 6 1/2,
    SKX (Skechers USA) was immediately bid

    Today's low marks a 41 % discount from it's IPO and a 47
    % fall from it's high point of 12 3/8 reached a few
    days after the IPO.

    If you consider that SKX
    (Skechers USA) was originally filed in the 12 to 15 range
    (approximate), today's close marks a 50 % discount from the
    levels originally filed to bring the IPO

    While I've not examined every detail of their
    financials as yet, SKX (Skechers USA) is selling at an
    approximate PE of 7 with growth of 100 % over last year's
    sales, so far.

    While I can't say for sure that
    SKX (Skechers USA) will/may retrace it's recent fall
    to once again touch or pierce the $ 11 IPO level,
    it's seems very likely it will do considerably better
    than it's seen today and the past several

    I'll post more findings as I go through their

    Have a great day on Friday to all. I do consider SKX
    (Skechers USA) as a real value with minimal risk and
    considerable upside from current levels.

    Pickle 007

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    • California is moving along with milk deregulation which might impact margins. HCOW is still not a cheap stock IMHO.

    • 10 7/8. Where are all the buyers? I would love to buy this stock at this level, but unless I can get some more info on the recent selling I won't.

    • I too shop organic and gladly pay the price. I
      did take a small loss on HCOW recently however
      because the stock chart spooked me. At one point last
      week 90,000 shares stared down from the ask. They were
      not taken. Who and why are they selling? I too am
      waiting for a bottom or some news about the recent stock
      price action before evaluating HCOW again.

    • I enjoyed reading your contributions, farmer james. I look forward to more of your input, whenever it is forthcoming.

    • this board: first of all, I believe it was me who
      jodi's mom first chastised for daring to be concerned
      about whether the value of HCOW was going up or down,
      and not only about improving the welfare of all
      sentient beings, be they four-legged, two-legged, or
      whatever. Let me also say that I think this board is a
      great forum for the issues that have dominated over the
      last few months. But to chastise those of us who are
      also concerned about HCOW as an investment is
      ludicrous. Meanwhile, HCOW's bid sits at 11 right now, just
      one single tick away from it's 52 week- low. Isn't
      anyone curious as to why?

      Now Jodi's mom:
      investing your own money in HCOW and losing it is not in
      the best interests of the organic movement. I believe
      in investing in green business also and supporting
      organic farming, but I am only going to invest in HCOW
      when I see the price about to go up. If I'm not
      invested (and I am not currently) I will support Horizon
      in ways other than throwing my hard-earned (and I
      mean hard-earned) money away. Good luck.

      the way, HCOW has great fundamentals, but the chart
      looks like manure. I'm waiting for a bottom or some

    • Not all of us consider your contributions
      irrelevant. I feel that you have made some very cogent and
      valuable contributions to this discussion. As a farmer
      yourself, you add a perspective that very few of us can add
      and I value it. Hcow's future depends on people like
      you -- farmers who have first-hand experience and
      have looked into the issue of organic animal
      husbandry. I do hope you will continue posting messages on
      this board. I disagree strongly with anyone who
      suggests that your contributions are off topic. Many of
      Hcow's stockholders do engage in what we hope is a
      socially conscious investment strategy and the way the
      animals are treated is relevant. So is a discussion of
      whether it is possible to let animals graze and stay
      within organic requirements. I am glad to know that Hcow
      does "lend a hand" to farmers who are considering
      going organic.

    • I'm sorry for wasting all of your time and will bow out of this discussion. I don't own any stock other than livestock and it's pretty important to me. Good luck to all of you.

    • I can't imagine a serious effort to include open
      range grazing in a definition of organic. Organic
      should mean the livestock is fed organic (no pesticides,
      hormones, etc.). Period.

      Come up with another term
      for grazing practices but don't encumber the term
      organic or it will become meaningless.

      As for
      sentient beings discussing whether cows like something
      more than something else, I'm sure there's a better
      chat area than here. I'm a vegetarian (lacto-ovo) and
      fully comprehend the implications of factory
      agriculture. For example, if you are gooing to drink milk,
      there will be excess offspring to deal with (veal, pet
      food, supplements, etc.). If you have problems with
      that don't drink milk and don't invest in the dairy

      As for HCOW, they have a terrific
      business model. They carry dairy farms through that
      one-year (or more?) transition to become certified
      organic; that's a huge hurdle for the typical farm to
      undertake alone. They have a great and improving
      distribution system and are aggressively buying into regions
      throughout the US, Japan and Europe.

      What I'd like to
      know is how they compare to their competitors. Is
      their pricing keeping competitive with alternatives at
      your store? Let's stick to the stock (not the

    • My point was (no I wasn't implying that you're
      stupid) if grazing dairies have to confine their cows for
      part of the year because of weather, how is that
      better than dairies that operate with large, well
      drained lots but no pasture grazing? If you mandate for
      organic certification purposes that you must graze year
      round, you are severely limiting the areas in the US
      where you can do that. Those areas tend to be the
      hottest and most humid states as well, difficult
      conditions to dairy in. The implication in the current regs
      is that herds smaller than 750 is better than larger
      herds for confinement purposes. Those are arbitrary
      levels that aren't supported by reality. All the 1000+
      dairies I know of are cleaner and better managed than the
      300 cow dairies I've seen, although size has nothing
      to do with it, it's strictly a managment issue. If
      future organic certification regs focus on management
      standards regardless of the size of operation, organic
      firms like Horizon have nothing to fear. From a dairy
      production standpoint, Horizon is one of the best managed
      operations I've seen.

    • Confinement defined by the Environmental
      Protection Agency as a Confined Animal Feeding Operation is
      1,000 animal units or 750 dairy cows confined to an
      area that doesn't support vegetiation for a set amount
      of time. (I'm sorry the specifics of this definition
      has withered over time, but I'm sure this very basic
      definition is correct.) Not allowing confinement doesn't
      mean that suplemental feeding wouldn't be allowed
      under the organic rules as long as they don't reach the
      CAFO definition.
      My friend we aren't stupid and
      realize that weather is always a factor in agriculture. I
      know well many grass dairies (in South Dakota no less,
      kind of cold there too.) Who manage to be successful
      grazing cattle during the temperate part of the year and
      feeding them through the winter.
      Your statement about
      their not being enough milk if strick organic rules are
      adopted forgets basic economics. If there's a demand for
      organic milk then perhaps there will need to be more
      organic dairy farms. This could ultimately mean more
      family farmers, not a bad thing in my mind. I hope
      everyone supports strong organic rules regarding animal

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